道达投资手记（080729）：不要麻痹 小心为妙

Posted on Jul 29, 2008 under 投资手记 |

　上周五的下跌被昨日的高开所抵消，股指又给大家上演了一次“俯卧撑”行情，而刺激市场的就是管理层透露出宏观政策微调的信号，以及再一次提出稳定楼市和股市的观点，可见，奥运前维稳的意图十分明显。

　　不过市场底历来都是走出来的，能稳定市场的直接因素就是源源不断的进场资金，但是即使在目前管理层频吹暖风之时，真正进场的资金却也有限，昨日的成交量比上周五大不了多少，而比上周四则萎缩明显，看来多数机构心中的“维稳”，就是不作为和被动护盘。

　　常言道“强扭的瓜不甜”，目前市场的这种状态是行政力量与市场力量的博弈，不是市场的自然真实状态，一旦行政力量消失，市场力量将按照自己的理解选择多空方向，不过就目前来看，空方应该占据了上风。

　　也许有人会问，为何判断空头占优？其实理由不复杂，如果3000点以下的市场真有投资价值，多头资金不需要谁动员，也会源源不断进入市场抢夺廉价筹码，但是我们现在看到的却是股指上冲无力，机构逢高就卖，逢低护盘，但是增仓不多，成交量无法放出。

　　这种景象倒像熊市中后期的特征，无论采取何种手段，中小投资者都无动于衷，最后的结果就是变成一个机构自拉自弹的市场，未能出逃的机构开始一个个倒下，一个个机构重仓股地雷被引爆。

　　至于短期方面，昨天沪指在2920点区域三次冲击失败，尚不能接近7月10日创下了2952点的反弹高点，也说明上方抛压远大于下方的买气，所以还是小心为妙，越是进入重大事件的关键周期，越要提高警惕。

　　百万资金操作：昨日以均价14.16元清仓南岭民爆（002096，收盘价13.49元），今日计划在4.81元上下2%清仓广电电子（600602，收盘价4.81元）。

　　股票池操作：继续持仓。

　　道达邮箱：daoda@263.net 本手记不构成任何操作建议，入市风险自担。（张道达）

　　

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