道达投资手记(080903): 历史经验也不可全信
Posted on Sep 03, 2008 under 投资手记 |
道达投资手记(080903): 历史经验也不可全信
这几天股市之外最热闹的财经新闻就是张卫星炒黄金爆仓，张卫星何许人也？当年的股市散户高手，还著书一本教散户如何抓牛股，后来在2001年开始的熊市之中，变成了股改最坚定的呐喊者之一，但是却在熊市末期转投黄金市场，彻底告别了股市，并在黄金市场找到了感觉，并且获利不菲，但是这次的爆仓却在短短几天将其数年来积累的财富完全消灭。
关于张卫星的失败，有种种说法，但是比较一致的就是其重仓做多黄金期货，结果遭遇了史上罕见的暴跌，最终导致了全盘皆输。成功者的成功经验未必能模仿，因为人与人之间有太多的不同，与每个人的性格、学识和环境有关，但是失败的经验却往往一致，同样的故事会不断重复。
与近年来落马的陈久霖、刘其兵等高手相同，这次张卫星同样输在了资金控制和止损控制上，而且过于相信自己的历史经验，恰不知正是小概率事件导致了致命失误。换句话说，无论是期货还是股票，今天赚钱的方法完全可能成为明天亏钱的方法，只有严格的风险控制系统才能真正避险。
回到目前的市场，由于目前的市场是一个全新的环境，不少经验都有可能在这个市场中被打破，所以在下跌了这么多以后，利用经验抄底的人也越来越多，但是却不能忘记系上”破位止损”这根安全带，否则从4000点抄到3000点再到2000点，也必然是伤痕累累了。
昨日低价股行情虽好，却没能带动大盘人气，不仅成交减少，短线技术形态也日趋恶劣，股指再次站在了破位的悬崖边上，到时候短期热门题材股也会补跌没商量，没有高超技巧的投资者，切不可贪图一时短利盲目追高。
百万资金操作：空仓观望。
股票池操作：继续持仓。
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