老法师看盘(20081007)：对融资融券的误解
Posted on Oct 07, 2008 under 投资手记 |
老法师看盘(20081007)：对融资融券的误解
节前最后一周的周四，我曾明确表示“不宜重仓过节”，当时心中只是感觉市场的不确定性太大，谁知昨日的暴跌走势真的印证了我的担忧。由于没有摆脱节后必跌的惯例，证明目前的反弹依然属于弱势行情，市场格局没有太多的改变。
被市场视为利好的融资融券消息出来以后，市场反应出乎多数人的意料，节前不少资金赌的就是这个所谓的利好，谁知被一根大阴棒打得头晕目眩。
其实，对于这一政策很多人出现了误解，认为目前可融资比可融券多，所以就不是利空，而是市场利好。这一逻辑明显有问题，资金都是追逐利润的，只有有利润的事情才会去做。融资融券的核心问题应该是目前的股票是否足够便宜，如果够便宜，那么融资抄底的人肯定比融券卖空的人多；如果不够便宜，那么融资抄底的人肯定比融券卖空的人少，这才是这一政策对市场影响的根本所在。
那么，目前的股票是否够便宜呢？从中期的角度来看，肯定不够便宜，因为从上市公司的业绩报表来看，尚未释放业绩下滑的风险，银行股等盈利主力还处于所谓的高增长幻相之中。在全球经济衰退威胁和国内楼市一直低迷的背景之下，A股市场2009年的动态市盈率肯定会远高于2008年的水平，所以中期愿意融券卖空者远多于敢于融资抄底者，融资融券目前是个实实在在的中期利空。
当一个中期利空被当作短期利好来炒的时候，悲剧自然发生了。
百万资金操作：空仓观望。
股票池操作：继续持仓。
道达邮箱：daoda@263.net本手记不构成任何操作建议，入市风险自担。 张道达
October 7th, 2008 at 9:33 pm
大师也不容易，连神都不清楚的市场偏偏还要每天都分析出它的每一步行为。
February 2nd, 2010 at 5:23 am
health insurance pisi life insurance 355 auto insurance 412
February 3rd, 2010 at 4:25 am
cheap health insurance plpxbd health insurance 8-D health insurance kiz auto insurance eyv
February 3rd, 2010 at 4:26 am
buy phentermine 61068
February 4th, 2010 at 5:14 am
health insurance 7990 life insurance fckpyb life insurance 47093 car insurance online >:DDD
February 5th, 2010 at 12:16 am
auto insurance quotes cttu health insurance quotes 016165 life insurance nyky individual health insurance plans 0259
February 6th, 2010 at 10:08 am
buy tramadol without priscription =((( cialis 993 cialis generic =P nasacort aciphex phentermine actos imitrex axnps propecia >:DDD
February 6th, 2010 at 10:23 am
phentermine no prescription 495 tramadol =PPP ultram er 853 accutane wnu
February 7th, 2010 at 10:09 pm
generic xanax 18033 taking cialis and viagra together 098301 valium bxlyam accutane =-( propecia 515 cialis %))) online pharmacy ultram mozilla %-(( aciphex hoq
February 8th, 2010 at 3:02 am
tramadol sxwl ultram :-OOO accutane ysa xanax 077729 buy cialis 351871 buy cialis
viagra 
aciphex phentermine alprazolam online pharmacy 5481
February 9th, 2010 at 6:00 am
phentermine jxpb buy cialis 338201 phentermine without a prescription subk car insurance >:OO car insurance quotes 767749 cialis online 7426 buy levitra keig tramadol apap jurz
February 10th, 2010 at 5:10 am
generic cialis 8DD aciphex %(( valium without prescription 921958 description of valium diazepam hcag cialis srywi generic cialis =[ levitra ufqnjf cheap auto insurance epyg
February 10th, 2010 at 8:46 am
phentermine =)) long term effects of xanax 8641 accutane med cheap auto insurance 098 xanax pbzlnj car insurance quotes 46380 levitra =[[[
February 10th, 2010 at 12:02 pm
cialis 226678 generic cialis 339220 levitra ehvi generic ultram :-DDD
February 10th, 2010 at 3:58 pm
levitra 44169 tramadol 200 pills online >:-]]] affordable auto insurance 893
February 12th, 2010 at 4:55 am
life insurance quotes 75474 insurance auto 8DDD auto insurance quotes tvl manufactured home insurance 9812
March 5th, 2010 at 4:20 am
aciphex 20mg 66201 doxycycline 2874 tramadol hcl-acetaminophen 179 carisoprodol
March 5th, 2010 at 7:26 am
cialis online gets doxycycline >:( accutane hakhlp
March 6th, 2010 at 1:47 pm
acomplia weight loss drug 2159 retin a without prescription iisbq retin a 3496 accutane :-DD
March 8th, 2010 at 10:24 am
xanax 88598 tramadol =]] retin 8-PPP
March 8th, 2010 at 1:14 pm
ambien 3987 buy doxycycline ywsmi internet pharmacy propecia soma zoloft =-D tramadol ebt
March 10th, 2010 at 4:24 am
buy tramadol online 47709 ambien problems igfsc doxycycline gxca order cialis online
March 10th, 2010 at 10:16 am
propecia 23781 aciphex 4708 generic valium
4759 accutane %-)))
March 11th, 2010 at 2:16 pm
propecia mkyun crownpills valium american express pay thd accutane %-))) ambien dosage aopd
March 11th, 2010 at 4:48 pm
purchasing tramadol 68770 ambien problems jnv doxycycline 1757 cheap generic cialis 502
March 13th, 2010 at 8:39 pm
aciphex aciphex phentermine discount pharmacy =-]]] valium dosage %D ultram 936457
March 14th, 2010 at 1:42 am
health insurance florida 57912 cheap auto insurance 34443 insurance auto auctions 65475
March 14th, 2010 at 3:01 am
cheap cheap drug propecia tramadol nrd accutane 07318 what is ambien 4204 cheap prices on cialis ekvyg
March 14th, 2010 at 5:04 am
online casino 520579 health insurance bojcl car insurance jij auto insurance 9022
March 16th, 2010 at 10:03 am
auto insurance rlndy car insurance 6935 auto insurance quotes wng
March 17th, 2010 at 11:47 am
health insurance quotes %OO vdzhgo insurance auto 36715 auto insurance quotes pdd