张道达投资手记(20080106)：老法师看盘 胜负天平转向多方(1月6日)

Posted on Jan 06, 2009 under 投资手记 |

张道达投资手记(20080106)：老法师看盘 胜负天平转向多方(1月6日)
昨天是2009年的第一个交易日，市场气氛感觉有些不同，大有“新年新气象”之势，除了股指的大涨之外，我一直关注的两个变量都出现了预期之中的变化，一是巨量小非上市后不跌反涨的金风科技和海通证券，二是摆脱了赢富数据监控的机构活跃度。

　　金风科技和海通证券自迎来巨量解禁股之后，已经连续上涨了数日，昨日更是加速上扬，大有炒成“样板股”的架势。如果这种强势能维持数日，场外观望资金对于今年的大小非恐惧就会逐步减轻，包括大小非自己也会开始动摇，能在解禁股上多赚个涨停板，也远比他们套现之后找不到增值渠道强，而这种市场心态的转变不可小视，将大大改善今年的大小非压力。此前市场人士正是担忧宏观经济和大小非问题，得出了对今年行情的预测，因此今年的行情再次让人出乎意料的可能也越来越大。多数人在去年的最大失误是忽视了大小非的杀伤力，但是2009年却要防范进入另一个极端，即夸大大小非在目前区域的杀伤力。

　　而节前预测的机构群魔乱舞，在昨天也初露端倪。不仅沪市的涨停板数量大大增多，而且一些不活跃的板块也变得舞步轻盈，比如钢铁股、有色金属股和保险股，均是大幅领涨，成为了新年第一天的亮点。而在1月行情中，相信还会有新的妖股和牛股涌现，毕竟机构“老鼠仓”去年已经饿了一年，也想在春节来临前填饱肚子。

　　经过昨日的上涨，上证指数再次回到头肩底形态的颈线位之上，空头节前的连续打压宣告功亏一篑，虽然造成了短暂的破位，但是空头却没有真正攻克颈线，接下来就看多头的反击了。目前胜负的天平已转向多方，如果能连续放量上涨逼空，收复沪指60日均线和五周均线，并在本周重返2000点之上，则多头就可在本轮反弹中首次拿下20周均线，顺势打开中线反弹空间，重聚节前已经散乱的市场人气，春节“红包行情”也就不是奢望了。

　　百万资金操作：继续持仓。

　　股票池操作：继续持仓。

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