道达投资手记（20090107）：老法师看盘：学会有限的贪婪

Posted on Jan 07, 2009 under 投资手记 |

道达投资手记（20090107）：老法师看盘：学会有限的贪婪

去年年底我曾经对机构年度报告做了个反向推测，其中有一个有趣的结论，在机构眼中最不可能的就是上半年股市出现大涨，但是由于机构的主流预测往往是错误的，所以对于上半年我们反而不要过于悲观。2009年前两个交易日的连续大涨，创造了16年以来最牛开局，不仅表明元旦节前普遍的看空观点并非真理，也暗示着上半年的行情不会不堪一击。

    从目前大盘的位置来看，多头将在今天的争夺中遭遇到一定力度的反抗，出现一定的回调或者震荡都是正常的，因为2000点关口目前是个关键技术位，即20周均线的区域。历史上的反弹行情要经历数次对20周均线的冲击之后，才能出现有效突破，否则股指一旦运行至此，都是一个中短期的反弹顶部。

    而就市场的运行状态而言，目前属于比较良性的范围，基本符合我在12月27日文中的判断。多头分兵两路，一路是大小非解禁股，以金风科技、海通证券和中国太保这三驾马车为龙头，另一路是前期滞涨股，以钢铁、煤炭和周期性股票为主。因此即使股指本周不能收复2000点，个股的活跃度也依然会很高，随着成交量的逐步放大，冷门股的升温，反弹极有可能持续到春节前夕。

    回想这次元旦节期间，我和几个金融证券业内的朋友一起吃饭，大家谈到一个有趣的现象，无论是公募基金、阳光私募或者理财产品，目前客户最关心的问题就是“保不保本？”，而前两年客户最喜欢问“最高收益是多少？”，看来大家在牛市的疯狂中吃了大亏，也学会在熊市中增强风险意识了。

    但是我有种感觉，这种风险意识似乎来得有些晚，早个一年半时间倒是很好，2009年恐怕应该是添加点进取意识了，再说直白点，就是在大多数人恐惧的时候学会有限的贪婪，但是需要记住把握尺度，这并非牛市中可以拥有的那种贪婪。

    百万资金操作：今日计划在6.83元上下2.5％买入10万股长征电气（600112，收盘价6.83元）。

    股票池操作：继续持仓。

    道达邮箱：daoda@263.net本手记不构成任何操作建议，入市风险自担。 张道达

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