张道达投资手记（20090114）：老法师看盘 市场缺大跌基础(1月14日)

Posted on Jan 14, 2009 under 投资手记 |

张道达投资手记（20090114）：老法师看盘 市场缺大跌基础(1月14日)

A股终于顶不住海外市场和经济数据的联手夹击，昨日出现了下跌之势，即将再次考验头肩底的颈线位。

　　目前香港H股指数已经连跌6天，昨天3.16%的跌幅还不算小，而且一举跌破了60日均线的支撑，对多头士气打击不小。H股的弱势源于银行板块的不佳表现，这也让A股银行板块受压。昨日深发展的不佳业绩预报更成为了一个导火索，刺激A股银行股全线下行，让过去的低市盈率“安全港”成了业绩变脸的“火药库”。

　　不佳的经济数据则来自于进出口。国家海关总署周二公布，中国2008年12月份外贸进出口连续第二个月负增长，并出现加速下滑趋势。此前管理层虽然推出了大量的经济刺激计划，但是目前市场并没有看到令人兴奋的数据，这和政策的滞后性有些关系，所以机构投资者还不会过早下定论，并就此做出方向性的选择。

　　应该认识到，对于意料之中的糟糕数据，对市场的杀伤力也会降低，比如深发展昨天跌停开盘，最终是低开高走，证明多头依然有抵抗力。而真正可怕的是意料之外的不佳数据出现，如果四万亿刺激计划推出三到四个月之后，还没有转暖数据出现，则会让市场担心经济刺激的效果，此时才会出现新的恐慌情绪，出现多杀多的抛盘，现在显然时机不到。

　　市场虽然再次有走弱的迹象，持有少量仓位者最好还是观望而不盲动，等待技术走势的确立再做选择，重仓者则要设立止损位，在股指破位时不能硬撑，还是要果断套现一些资金。虽然从分析逻辑上讲，目前市场没有大跌的基础，只是需要防范小概率事件的发生，2008年的小概率事件已经给大家上了一课。

　　百万资金操作：昨日五洲明珠(600873，收盘价5.20元)未进入计划买入区域，操作计划不成功，今日空仓观望。

　　股票池操作：继续持仓。

 

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