张道达投资手记（20090117）：老法师看盘 大盘将进震荡期(1月17日)
Posted on Jan 19, 2009 under 投资手记 |
张道达投资手记（20090117）：老法师看盘 大盘将进震荡期(1月17日)
A股本周保持了独立的上涨行情，在这个全球股市都连续下跌的时刻显得与众不同。纵观全周行情，“先苦后甜”的特征明显，周二的破位下跌一度让市场神经紧绷，但是道达先生依然显得非常乐观，最终经受住了市场的考验。对于春节长假前的最后一周，他又如何判断呢？
补涨行情未必是末日
记者：本周虽然只是小涨，但还是值得庆贺。
道达：嗯，正如上周末我提到的“各路资金都开始觉醒”，本周各种类型的股票都全面开花，连银行股也动了，所以指数也动起来了。固然这其中有些补涨的因素，而我此前曾说把银行股当反向指标，那么这种判断放在目前的行情应该如何理解呢？
我认为，要分成短期和中期两个标准来看待。如果是短期的反向指标，就意味着短期大盘有震荡调整的需求，正好给新资金创造进场机会；如果是中期的反向指标，就意味着反弹行情将结束。
记者：那么如何判断短期和中期呢？
道达：我觉得我们不要教条主义，一看见补涨就觉得世界末日来了。补涨行情启动后，一是看银行股的补涨幅度是否已经达到，二是看场外新资金是否愿意跟进。
如果银行股的涨幅偏小，场外资金不惧调整，能源源不断地涌入，那么每一次补涨过后的震荡就是成功的热点切换时间，中级反弹行情还可以延续。从目前的资金配合状态和市场特征来看，我倾向于是一次短期的震荡走势。
震荡后走势依然乐观
记者：看来你还是偏乐观的。
道达：是的，其实最初影响2009年行情的两大因素。一是大小非，二是宏观经济，导致大量资金在场外观望，不愿意越雷池一步。但是仔细分析后可以发现，这两大因素已经出现了变化，自然会刺激资金的进场欲望。首先大小非解禁的公司并非弱不禁风，很多还变成了龙头品种，暂时已经不是市场需要担心的问题了；而宏观经济也出现了转机的可能，中国银行业由于国情和体制原因，在管理层主导下加速向社会投放贷款，强行为经济输血，刺激实体经济的复苏，这与美欧等国银行业不敢轻易放贷的手法截然不同，而美欧实体经济因此至今仍处于恶化之中，并且进入一种恶性循环的阶段，目前有种说法“中国经济会率先触底反弹”，这不是没有道理的。所以对于银行股补涨之后的市场走势，目前相对乐观，市场应该只是出现短期震荡，时间就在下周吧。
记者：听起来有些道理，那么应该如何应对震荡行情呢？
道达：对于涨幅不大的股票，我的建议就是持股待涨，下周的主题就是个股继续全面补涨，短期的震荡就让市场去荡吧。而现在的题材五花八门，追涨追得头昏脑胀，而且还心浮气躁，周五一些强势股跳水，一些短线客又睡不着觉了，所以还不如守株待兔，等轮盘转到自己这边的时候从容应对。
百万资金操作：继续持仓。
股票池操作：继续持仓。
January 19th, 2009 at 9:51 am
这是什么投资手记哦 开盘了都没有看见当天的信息，你应该在每天的8.30前就要把当天的信息上了
January 19th, 2009 at 10:38 pm
你应该在每天的8.30前就要把当天的信息上了
January 19th, 2009 at 10:41 pm
张老是，我每天都在看你的博客、、、你的600873五洲明珠卖了吗？？？
January 20th, 2009 at 9:21 am
好像他没有买到五洲明珠，他的手记每天都登在城市快报上，所以估计不能更新很快
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记者：听起来有些道理，那么应该如何应对震荡行情呢？
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