张道达投资手记（20090204）：老法师看盘 激战半年线(2月4日)

Posted on Feb 04, 2009 under 投资手记 |

张道达投资手记（20090204）：老法师看盘 激战半年线(2月4日)

在回避了长假的不确定性之后，昨日各路资金胆子也开始大了起来。上涨中明显放量，较节后首日放大了近五成，其中既有空翻多资金，也有节前避险空仓的回补资金。

　　随着众多资金的推动，多头在昨日也取得了不小的进展，深成指攻上了半年线，而上证指数也兵临半年线之下，这也是自去年1月跌破半年线之后，股指首次重新回到这一关键区域。以我的经验，作为反弹行情的特征，第一次回到长期均线区域便成功收复的概率是偏小的，多半有个大幅震荡的过程，多空将有一场激战，而以目前逐渐高涨的人气和充裕的外围资金来判断，经过充分震荡之后，多头最终有望站稳半年线，反弹进程将得以进一步延续。

　　当然，就大盘而言，目前也要考虑另一种可能性发生后的变化。从技术上看，目前上证指数开始形成一个新的上升通道，以去年11月18日和去年12月9日的两个高点连线作为上轨，如果短期市场足够强势，多头一口气攻上半年线，那么在这一上轨区域就会遭遇很强的阻力，在此附近可以考虑高抛部分筹码锁定反弹利润。

　　相对于指数走势的判断，目前把握个股的走向也需要一些技巧。每天的热点变化多端，突然启动的股票也不少，热点反而变得零乱，短线客应接不暇，很多人复盘时才发现还是守株待兔的效果强过每天杀进杀出，黑马可遇而不可求；与此同时，盘面中个股易涨难跌的现象愈加明显，即使遭遇利空打压，股价也跌不了多深，下档承接盘异常踊跃，卖出之后很难低位回补。因此选好个股，在尚未拉升时或者盘整时埋伏进去，其实倒是个省事的办法。

　　百万资金操作：继续持仓。

　　股票池操作：继续持仓。

 

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