张道达投资手记（20090401）：老法师看盘 市场还是多头特征(4月1日)

Posted on Apr 01, 2009 under 投资手记 |

张道达投资手记（20090401）：老法师看盘 市场还是多头特征(4月1日)

昨天早上8点过就有朋友给我打电话，说是创业板IPO办法推出了，大盘要大跌，我还以为是个玩笑，但是一上网才知道，这次“狼”是真的来了。不过我实在不理解，为何这次又是在股民的睡梦之中出台股市重大政策，上次是2007年的“5·30”，提高印花税的利空以 “半夜鸡叫”的方式降临，将不少散户套得动弹不得。

　　虽然昨天市场低开高走，没有重现“5.30”的一幕，但是我还是认为，股市是一个对信息极度敏感的地方，如果真是要深思熟虑出台一个政策，还是应该考虑给投资者一个公平的知情权，这也是成熟市场的标志之一。

　　对于创业板，我的观点是炒作风险更大，炒作利润未必更高，更象一个概念板，由于很多公司的业绩和管理还不如主板公司，虽然顶着各种概念，却稳定性极差，不少主板公司的问题还未解决，又能对创业板抱有多少希望呢？真正在创业板中能获暴利的还是一些民企老板、创投机构和机构庄家，散户能喝点汤就不错了，水平不高的还是不要去送菜了。

　　由于创业板还要过段时间才推出，所以现在还是要看主板的表演。昨天收盘后肯定又是几家欢喜几家愁，开盘慌忙杀跌者又卖了个地板价，而上午还在愁眉苦脸的多头，下午又恢复了元气，这就是目前市场的现状，总是让多头无法舒舒服服的持股，但是每一次忍不住卖出之后，错误的概率总是大于正确的概率，如果这种感觉一直保持，那么只能得出一个结论——市场依然没有转弱，还是可以保持多头思维。空头市场的特征则是“任何时候卖出都是正确的”，这与多头市场的特征恰恰相反。

　　从盘面看，连续顶住空头的两天轰炸之后，多头士气有所上升，不仅没有让空头制造中阴线的企图得逞，而且又开始积蓄实力反击了，下半周应该是多头占据上风才正常。

　　百万资金操作：继续持仓。

　　股票池操作：今日计划在7.97元上下2%加仓15万股桂冠电力(600236，收盘价7.97元)。

 

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