张道达投资手记（090901）：老法师看盘 下跌量能决定反弹(9月1日)
Posted on Sep 01, 2009 under 投资手记 |
张道达投资手记（090901）：老法师看盘 下跌量能决定反弹(9月1日)
昨日，大盘低开低走，沪指收盘大跌192.94点，跌幅创去年底反弹以来的最大单日跌幅，自去年反弹以来的上升通道已被空方坚决击穿，如果短期内大盘不重新放量回到通道之内，自去年以来的中级上升趋势将确认转入中级下跌趋势，市场继续下跌寻找新的平衡点将是大概率事件。
上周末，我曾提到大盘若要扭转颓势需要政策面发出积极信号；然而，周末过后等来的却是中国中冶约168.48亿元融资计划启动的利空消息。100多亿的融资计划虽然不算太多，在牛市中只是小菜一碟，但是在下降趋势中，却给市场传递出了一个混乱的信号，将前期批准多只基金的维稳利好预期完全打破。而投资者对中国中冶在此时登陆A股市场也解读为：股指虽然已累计跌幅超20%，管理层依然没有放缓“圈钱”的速度，说明其并不紧张大盘目前的走势，所谓更大的救市利好也就只是“空中楼阁”，因此只能选择脚底抹油先溜为妙了。
其实盘面显示，上周五就有消息灵通的机构在匆忙出逃了，而昨日消息见光之后，引发场内资金的全面恐慌，机构和散户争相出逃，但从昨日缩量下跌的特征来看，不少想跑的资金估计都还没有跑出去，毕竟“门”只有那么大，因此市场的恐慌情绪可能并没有得到充分的宣泄，后市仍有进一步下跌的动能。
就技术上看，昨日股指已在去年底发动的反弹行情的第二个缺口2635到2668点附近徘徊，会不会补缺口，补缺之后又会不会反弹？以目前这种市场惯性，我个人倾向于补缺的可能是比较大的，补缺之后股指将靠近2600点，这里又曾经是今年多空激烈换手的区域，理论上也有比较强的支撑，所以补缺之后出现反弹也是大概率事件。
但是交易者需要关心的不是会不会反弹，而是会不会出现报复性反弹，否则赚钱的机会也不大，搞不好还要再挨一刀。而报复性反弹出现的关键依然是量能决定的，如果大盘放量补缺，可以说是一些割肉盘和恐慌盘被“吓”了出来，从而吸引了有实力的抄底资金进场捡货，这些资金拿到了低价筹码，才有可能推动一个有交易机会的反弹行情出现，也就是大家期待的报复性反弹行情，如果是无量下跌之后的无量反弹，充其量也只是一个技术性的小反弹，机会不会太多了。即便出现反弹行情，由于中级趋势的改变，我觉得目前依然不是打“阵地战”的时候，而是“小股部队”打“游击战”，而且打得赢要跑，打不赢更要跑。
百万资金操作：继续持仓。
股票池操作：继续持仓。
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