张道达投资手记（090903）：老法师看盘 进入变盘前夜(9月3日)

Posted on Sep 03, 2009 under 投资手记 |

张道达投资手记（090903）：老法师看盘 进入变盘前夜(9月3日)

　　昨日，沪指在犹豫中收出一根中阳线，加上周二的小阳线，沪指已收出两根阳线。值得注意的是，两根阳线均是缩量反弹，昨日沪市成交已创今年3月份以来的地量水平。

　　地量反弹的出现，表明目前市场筹码的锁定性较好，毕竟该跑的已经跑了不少，而深度被套的已不愿意在此割肉认赔出局；只要有部分资金试探性地做多，就很容易制造出反弹，盘面上表现最明显的就是有部分资金在回补前期超跌的银行和地产股，但是吸纳的力度还不大。从历史经验来看，随着成交量的不断萎缩，显示多空进入平衡状态之后，大盘也将进入变盘前夜，向上或者向下都有可能。

　　而上周末我曾经提到，大盘若要扭转颓势需要政策面发出积极信号，因此大盘如果要向上变盘，关键还是要看政策面配合，各方资金也处于密切关注阶段。如果消息面出现回暖，比如9月信贷的再度放松，或者新股发行节奏放缓等，都很容易引发多头的想象空间，短期市场就能持续反弹，当然反弹的力度和强度则仍要看成交量是否得到持续放大了。我的操作思路依然是无量反弹不参与，放量反弹才考虑。

　　说到股票操作，昨日证监会通报了对多名内幕交易者的处罚，引起了我的关注，我关注的原因不是证监会的铁腕打击行为，而是细看下来却发现，某上市公司董事长在熟知整个内幕的情况下炒股，最终却亏损几十万元。作为董事长可谓是对影响股价的消息了如指掌，其炒股理论上应该只赚不赔，但是却仍然输给了08年的大熊市。

　　这个案例给大家的启示就是，任何消息都很难敌过趋势的力量。对于很多喜欢打探消息炒股的中小投资者来说，不能不说是一个很好的反面教材。靠消息炒股只能盈利一时，不可能是常胜将军，把握市场趋势才是在市场长期生存的最关键的决定因素，消息只能作为辅助性决策手段。

 

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