张道达投资手记（090922）：老法师看盘 维稳预期占上风(9月22日)

Posted on Sep 22, 2009 under 投资手记 |

张道达投资手记（090922）：老法师看盘 维稳预期占上风(9月22日)

中国中冶昨日上市了，猜测中的创业板推出时间也明确了，传说中的诸多影响大盘上涨的利空因素在昨日集中性释放。昨日早盘市场对利空也给予了反应：沪指一度下跌3%，差点将半年线击穿，市场形势一度趋于紧张。不过，随后市场在权重股止跌企稳的刺激下震荡上扬，市场最终化险为夷，收盘最终让暴跌的指数还微幅上涨，沪指涨幅0.15%，深成指涨幅还达到0.57%。

　　对于利空消息的集中性释放，我反而舒了一口气。对于炒作预期的市场来说，可预期的利空已兑现，短期内再度出现重大利空突袭大盘的概率大大降低，维稳预期应该重占上风。

　　这种判断来自盘面较量的结果，昨日大盘从低开到高走最终收涨，同时还能保持着较高的成交量水平，已经初步缓解了上周五大跌带来的恐慌情绪，相信各路游资将再度出击，又是交易型选手在各种题材股上大显身手的时候了。而在政策性意味依然较浓的A股市场，权重股虽然不是涨幅榜上的主角，却是稳定股指的主角，昨日纷纷走出低开高走的企稳态势，短期恐怕也难现大跌了。

　　从技术面来看，多个技术区域昨日也经受住了空方的考验，一是半年线这根中长期均线依然展现了支撑力度，昨日股指在接近该线附近时，就迅速被买家拉起；二是我上周末建议大家关注的5周均线，盘中虽然被空头占领，但收盘仍被多方夺回，未出现有效跌破的不利局面；三是自去年反弹以来的上升通道下轨也对股指构成支撑，上证指数在此处也是神奇的止跌。

　　我相信下一阶段的题材股又会有新变化，近期暴涨的品种需要远离，而昨日用放量阳线吞掉上周五阴线的品种，应该是未来的主角，其持续性将更值得期待。

　　百万资金操作：无操作计划。

　　股票池操作：继续持仓。

 

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