张道达投资手记（091030）：老法师看盘 平常心看创业板(10月30日)
Posted on Oct 30, 2009 under 投资手记 |
张道达投资手记（091030）：老法师看盘 平常心看创业板(10月30日)
很遗憾，昨日大盘并没有以红盘来迎接创业板这个“新娘”，昨日一开盘股指就展开断崖式下跌，沪指跳空下跌近60点开盘，收盘跌幅扩大到70点，市场急跌的根本症结在哪儿呢？
尽管有创业板开市、中国建筑和工行限售股解禁等因素干扰，但我认为，最致命的一击还是来自昨天我提到的美元因素，近期全球股市和大宗商品市场的急跌都是美元走强惹的祸。伴随几个国家迫不及待地收紧货币政策，美元加息的“风声”随之也刮起，原本分布于全球各地追求高收益的热钱大举撤退，卖掉当地货币回补美元头寸，因此美元本周连涨四天，进一步强化了热钱回补美元的欲望，也才出现了全球股市齐跌四天的“盛况”。
我很关心美元反弹的性质，如果美元汇率此番反弹仅是一个小级别的喷嚏，那么不会对全球资本市场造成伤筋动骨的调整；而如果是一波中等级别的反弹，那么打击力度就会大得多。
目前美元指数在40天均线附近展开争夺，从近半年美元反弹的走势来看，40天均线基本是压制其反弹的重要阻力，如果其不能向上突破，则全球市场可能结束调整恢复稳定；如果继续有效突破，则全球股市的调整幅度可能扩大，A股也难以独善其身。正是出于这种担心，昨天我提出了减至半仓的观点。
而今天是创业板正式开市日，却遭遇美元走强搅局，显然增添了新的变数，但最重要的还是保持理性的态度，既不要以为创业板遍地都是“金娃娃”，也不要以为创业板是“洪水猛兽”。
此前管理层为了预防爆炒，不停给散户打“风险预防针”，我看也吓退了不少人，近日还限制几大活跃账户的交易，甚至有报道称管理层也给基金公司打了招呼“首日最好不交易”。这些措施初衷是好的，但结果只有让市场来检验了。
我认为，创业板的股票无非也是股票，运用理性的方法来分析就可以了，业绩、成长性和市盈率这些都是标准，只要符合自己的选股标准，同样也可以买。建议大家可以看看这些公司三季度的业绩报告，2009年已经过去大半，这才是最接近其准确估值的数据，而不是使用2008年末的过期数据，然后就得出了市盈率过高的结论。我只举一个例子，神州泰岳三季度每股收益1.54元，同比增长180%，发行价58元，如果四季度没有大的变化，2009年的预估市盈率仅29倍，有券商预计其上市合理价在90元到100元左右，以其基本面，显然不能算高得离谱吧！
百万资金操作：无操作计划。
股票池操作：继续持仓。
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