张道达投资手记（091031）：老法师看盘 11月“试金石”(10月31日)
Posted on Nov 02, 2009 under 投资手记 |
张道达投资手记（091031）：老法师看盘 11月“试金石”(10月31日)
10月A股上演了一场震荡反弹的序曲。在周边市场大涨、经济复苏、通胀预期以及升值预期的合力推动下，沪指最高攀上3100点。然而，本周半路杀出“程咬金”，经济复苏产生的另一矛盾——流动性收缩显出峥嵘，全球股市也闻之色变，沪指一度回落到2900点附近。周五，受美股重新走强刺激，A股也以红盘报收。下周就进入11月了，股市又会走出怎样的行情呢？让我们来听听道达先生的观点吧。
密切关注美元动向
记者：又是一个月结束了，10月大盘月涨幅7.79%，总体还是呈震荡向上走势。
道达：是的，我在月初也提到大盘将在10月中旬依靠经济复苏和业绩浪推动震荡上扬，而到10月下旬将伴随创业板的推出而出现大震荡。总体看来，10月的走势与这个基调基本接近。
但是大盘站上60日均线后的大幅震荡还是在我的预期之外，最主要的因素还是受到经济复苏后，全球流动性收缩信号大增导致市场不确定性增加。因此后市仍有必要密切关注国际经济局势和美元汇率动向，周五A股的反弹也是得益于前晚海外市场的转强和美元的贬值，足见A股的波动越来越融入全球市场。
记者：除了美元因素外，还有什么因素会对下月行情构成影响，11月行情如何研判呢？
道达：总体来看，影响市场的因素比较复杂，因此60日均线的震荡周期会加长，11月是很重要的一个月，是多头力度的“试金石”。
作出这种判断，除了因为全球资本市场和外汇市场走势尚不稳定，还要考虑流动性的特殊情况。从我国信贷惯例看，历来年底都是放贷规模较低的时候，企业和银行也处于回笼资金阶段，因此市场资金面应是最紧张的时候，加上还有主板新股的排队发行压力和“大小非”的套现压力，市场必然面临空头的考验。不过到了12月份，尽管流动性依然不足，但是考虑到第二年年初往往是信贷最充沛期，流动性推升行情可期，可以维持市场的信心，因此11月应该比12月更加困难一点。
所以我判断11月如果出现较明显的下跌，应该是为来年布局的时机；而如果11月大盘能够维持强势震荡而不跌的话，则是一个有利信号，表明市场中多头的强度值得期待。
下周才是创业股定位关键期
记者：周五万众瞩目的创业板开市了，波动剧烈，你怎么看？
道达：对于这个新事物，市场给予了热烈甚至疯狂的追捧。对于创业板周五的表现我有两点认识：一是开盘价格相对合理，这可能与此前管理层不断进行风险教育有关，正因为比较合理的开盘价，因此引发了市场资金的炒作热情，所以在开盘之后几分钟内买入者一般都还处于盈利状态，10点之后追高者就是风险高于利润了；二是这些个股的价格在随后的大幅拉升中，就显得明显失去理性了，因此才在尾市出现大幅回落。
有网友以华谊为例调侃道：“很多可爱的投资者舍不得花90元看一场华谊的电影，却舍得花90元买一股理论上需要210年才能收回成本的华谊股票。”这不能不说是炒得过度了。
记者：那是不是这些股票不能碰了？
道达：我想这些股票后市走势将明显分化，有机构介入的未来有机会震荡走高，无机构关照的就要特别小心。我想再次强调平常心对待创业板的重要性，还是以神州泰岳为例，如果认为三季报每股1.54元的业绩，100元的定位比较合理，那么在开盘后回落到90元以下才买入，安全系数自然要高得多，而冲上110元还去追涨者，就明显是不理性了。至于创业板下一步的走势，我觉得下周才是关键，股价的定位不会在上市一天之内就完成，一定是需要经历一个周期的。由于管理层的限制，很多机构未必首日能够杀入，下周趁回落之时估计机构才会真正动手，把自己喜欢的股票收入囊中，谁是骡子谁是黑马，下周会更明朗。
百万资金操作：无操作计划。
股票池操作：继续持仓。
November 2nd, 2009 at 9:43 am
成都股票免费开户(13980585802)，成都炒股开户（周六也可办理），可办理的地方有成都（数码广场、红星路、双楠、抚琴、东城根、蜀都大厦、青白江、都江堰、大邑、龙泉、温江、新都、中和、邛崃、蒲江） 上海、北京、长沙、昆明、厦门、杭州
找客户经理开户的理由（转户也可享受）：请务必打电话免费预约，否则将享受不到任何优惠！
第一：新股民在客户经理处预约开户，可以免90元开户费（开户过程不产生任何费用，真正完全免费）自己去柜台办理则不能享受免费
第二：老客户转户到国金证券所产生的费用，可以在客户经理处报销。并可在佣金上享受优惠。
第三：在客户经理处预约开户及转户可以享受快捷的服务，勿需排队。
第四：国金证券的三方存管业务在成都几乎所有的银行都能办理，为投资者带来方便。
第五：在客户经理处开户能享受到更多后续的服务（包括盘中个股的推荐，持仓个股的诊断，操作策略的指导，技术分析的培训等），直接去证券公司开户则不能享受到。
第六：在客户经理处预约，客户经理会根据你的住址在国金证券的众多营业部中就近为你选择，无需东奔西跑
第七：在客户经理处预约后，可以在非交易时间受理资料，为上班族开户提供方便。
第八：在客户经理处开户，佣金比自己去公司开户便宜40%左右。并可根据资金量和操作情况再作适当优惠！帮助您节省交易成本
第九：在客户经理处开户，可以签订服务产品，由分析师带着你做票，给你提供买卖点位，可以指定服务的分析师：武腾龙、张波、宋世文、毛锐、蔡翔。
选择国金证券的理由：
第一：国金证券是一家大型的上市券商，在管理上更加规范。在证券市场是更是行业领头股。
第二：国金证券拥有强大的硬件设施支持，大型服务器就架设在东城根国金证券总部，让你的交易更快捷，最大化的降低网络延迟，成交更快捷
第三：国金证券拥有实力强大的研发团队，其研发实力位居全国前三甲，钢铁、有色名列第一。强大的实力让你拥有更多的获利机会。
第四：国金证券贴心的服务，金牌分析师的一对一专业服务，签约贵宾服务的客户更可享受分析师对买卖点位的指导。
第五：国金证券拥有众多的投资品种，包括A股、B股、开放式基金、ETF、LOF、权证，并能通过控股公司开立港股帐户。
第六：国金证券在成都是营业网点最多的券商，为你办理业务提供方便
预约方式：打电话到13980585802预约开户的时间。预约需要提供开户人的姓名和联系方式，预约成功后，本人带上本人身份证，本人身份证开立的用作资金存管的银行卡到预约开户营业部办理开户。（不预约恕不免费）
免费开户预约联系人：张先生 预约电话： 139 8058 5802
客户服务、行情咨询QQ：176149479(请尽量采用电话联系，QQ可能有时不在线)
众多的营业部 方便大家开转户
国金证券深圳席位号：259800
我公司已经免去了5元的通讯费，为广大投资者节约更多交易成本。
欢迎广大股民选择国金证券，我们将竭诚为您服务！（专业创造价值 诚信铸就未来）
April 3rd, 2010 at 6:22 pm
Usually I do not post on posts, but I would like to say that this site really forced me to do it! Thanks, very good post.
April 3rd, 2010 at 9:18 pm
You made good ideas here. I done a research on the topic and learnt nearly all peoples will agree with your blog.
April 4th, 2010 at 9:01 am
Thanks for taking the time to discuss this, I feel strongly about it and love learning more on this topic. If possible, as you gain expertise, would you mind updating your blog with more information? It is extremely helpful for me.
April 7th, 2010 at 11:34 am
You had solid ideas there. I made a search on the issue and found most peoples will agree with your blog.
April 10th, 2010 at 2:23 am
this was a really quality post. In theory I’d like to write like this too - taking time and real effort to make a good article… but what can I say… I procrastinate a lot and never seem to get something done.
April 12th, 2010 at 6:22 pm
You have done a marvellous job by exploring this subject with such an honesty and depth. Thanks for sharing it with us!
April 21st, 2010 at 5:05 pm
mlQOtGD
April 22nd, 2010 at 4:08 pm
TmRckO UzYaRPWJ
April 29th, 2010 at 4:07 pm
KhkxpC Buy Xanax
April 30th, 2010 at 3:24 pm
AlBmfMIl Buy Viagra
May 1st, 2010 at 1:23 pm
UUOwUTb Fortuna cigarettes
May 2nd, 2010 at 8:29 am
You had great positive ideas there. I did a search on the issue and found nearly all peoples will agree with your blog.
May 3rd, 2010 at 10:46 am
RNXUHZ Buy Viagra online
May 4th, 2010 at 8:41 pm
hArrPrlE Valium
May 5th, 2010 at 4:06 pm
JmgwlP Buy Phentermine
May 6th, 2010 at 2:43 pm
xHUMdSN Cheap Phentermine
May 7th, 2010 at 1:03 am
RDwlQTxp Cheap Viagra
May 7th, 2010 at 1:43 pm
tFtoFhkQ Valium
May 7th, 2010 at 4:30 pm
While this subject can be very touchy for most people, my opinion is that there has to be a middle or common ground that we all can find. I do appreciate that youve added relevant and intelligent commentary here though. Thank you!
May 11th, 2010 at 2:56 pm
SZIGOE Buy Viagra online
May 12th, 2010 at 2:02 am
aakkNG Buy Viagra
May 12th, 2010 at 4:16 pm
This post was very well written, and it also contains many useful facts. I enjoyed your distinguished way of writing the post. You have made it very easy for me to understand.
May 12th, 2010 at 7:02 pm
PYvohn Buy Viagra online
May 13th, 2010 at 10:52 pm
rHTkPzWe achat cialis
May 14th, 2010 at 2:08 pm
joHQSk Phentermine
May 14th, 2010 at 4:20 pm
Aw, this was a really quality post. In theory I’d like to write like this too - taking time and real effort to make a good article… but what can I say… I procrastinate alot and never seem to get something done.
May 15th, 2010 at 2:09 pm
idpdHu Viagra
May 16th, 2010 at 5:13 pm
OwgdEG Buy Viagra online
May 17th, 2010 at 4:40 am
peMStssR Viagra
May 18th, 2010 at 12:00 am
Hello! debdddg interesting debdddg site!
May 18th, 2010 at 12:00 am
Very nice site! cheap viagra
May 18th, 2010 at 12:00 am
Very nice site! [url=http://aieopxy.com/osoxsxv/2.html]cheap cialis[/url]
May 18th, 2010 at 12:00 am
Very nice site! cheap cialis http://aieopxy.com/osoxsxv/4.html
May 18th, 2010 at 12:00 am
Very nice site!
May 18th, 2010 at 12:39 pm
VrdZqOjr Phentermine
May 19th, 2010 at 1:17 am
tXFdUA Buy Valium
May 19th, 2010 at 9:42 am
Hello! dkfgdbd interesting dkfgdbd site!
May 19th, 2010 at 9:42 am
Very nice site! cheap viagra
May 19th, 2010 at 9:42 am
Very nice site! [url=http://apeyixo.com/ysyrvrs/2.html]cheap cialis[/url]
May 19th, 2010 at 9:42 am
Very nice site! cheap cialis http://apeyixo.com/ysyrvrs/4.html
May 19th, 2010 at 9:43 am
Very nice site!
May 19th, 2010 at 1:00 pm
ohtkifq Buy Viagra online
May 21st, 2010 at 10:17 am
uQejdtpD Xanax online
May 21st, 2010 at 3:27 pm
hzEKSvm Cheap viagra
May 22nd, 2010 at 3:13 pm
GSflKi Buy Viagra
May 23rd, 2010 at 3:27 pm
NskvEdXc Buy Viagra online
May 24th, 2010 at 2:03 am
ejhhFKyA Cheap Phentermine
May 26th, 2010 at 1:53 pm
uXpvdnJ Valium
May 28th, 2010 at 2:11 pm
qNuRqXJG Phentermine online
May 29th, 2010 at 6:05 pm
DNNBdeO Buy Viagra online
May 29th, 2010 at 10:34 pm
ccBKlT Viagra
May 30th, 2010 at 7:25 pm
mihNHX Viagra
June 1st, 2010 at 10:41 am
thdFrYN Phentermine
June 2nd, 2010 at 12:59 pm
tOXvRG Valium online
June 2nd, 2010 at 8:06 pm
AhHdguPO Buy Viagra online
June 4th, 2010 at 9:38 pm
HXhsktHe Buy Viagra online
June 6th, 2010 at 2:52 pm
HxtsTDOd Buy Viagra
June 6th, 2010 at 10:58 pm
ltmtAX Xanax online
June 8th, 2010 at 8:20 pm
apWPTd Viagra
June 11th, 2010 at 11:06 am
FdPqIe Viagra
June 11th, 2010 at 7:38 pm
dFruIOaf Cheap Phentermine
June 12th, 2010 at 5:42 pm
PFOivMXM Buy Viagra online
June 14th, 2010 at 3:26 am
MsXHafW Buy Viagra online
June 14th, 2010 at 12:00 pm
XnJZaZ Valium
June 15th, 2010 at 5:04 pm
GYAaux Viagra
June 16th, 2010 at 11:09 pm
tVRfSvJ Valium
June 17th, 2010 at 10:08 am
RvAbOw Viagra
June 24th, 2010 at 4:37 am
Hello! cadgdka interesting cadgdka site!
June 24th, 2010 at 4:37 am
Very nice site! cheap viagra
June 24th, 2010 at 4:37 am
Very nice site! [url=http://opeyixa.com/rvqatx/2.html]cheap cialis[/url]
June 24th, 2010 at 4:37 am
Very nice site! cheap cialis http://opeyixa.com/rvqatx/4.html
June 24th, 2010 at 4:37 am
Very nice site!
June 24th, 2010 at 1:53 pm
tCUFSqxj Buy Viagra online
June 24th, 2010 at 11:25 pm
QeFrTOG Xanax online
June 27th, 2010 at 5:57 pm
jFauSEW Viagra
June 29th, 2010 at 8:44 pm
DRddwQ Buy Phentermine
July 3rd, 2010 at 10:03 am
AprtwA Cialis
July 3rd, 2010 at 4:11 pm
BjWwCD Buy Viagra
July 4th, 2010 at 12:07 am
jaHinlrY Viagra
July 7th, 2010 at 5:22 am
ZZkLbY Phentermine
July 9th, 2010 at 2:05 am
vedVFCxV Buy Viagra online
July 12th, 2010 at 2:19 am
kcaVRu Buy Lucky Strike
July 13th, 2010 at 5:25 am
CCCtOgx Phentermine
July 29th, 2010 at 8:01 pm
kDbRBq
August 2nd, 2010 at 4:14 pm
HJRSim YSRuYOew
August 4th, 2010 at 7:10 am
Aw, this was a really quality post. In theory I’d like to write like this too - taking time and real effort to make a good article… but what can I say… I procrastinate alot and never seem to get something done. Great American rock music began in…
I was looking for crucial information on this subject. The information was important as I am about to launch my own portal. Thanks for providing a missing link in my business. Rockers like Richie Valens and Jerry Lee Lewis grew from the ripe musical sp…
August 7th, 2010 at 2:01 pm
You got great honest points here. I done a search on the issue and learnt most peoples will agree with your blog. It can only be prevented or managed.
August 13th, 2010 at 2:13 am
You had some nice points here. I done a research on the topic and got most peoples will agree with your blog.
August 20th, 2010 at 6:26 pm
Hello! fkkfafc interesting fkkfafc site!
August 20th, 2010 at 6:27 pm
Very nice site! cheap viagra
August 20th, 2010 at 6:27 pm
Very nice site! [url=http://opxaiey.com/oyyrsry/2.html]cheap cialis[/url]
August 20th, 2010 at 6:27 pm
Very nice site! cheap cialis http://opxaiey.com/oyyrsry/4.html
August 20th, 2010 at 6:27 pm
Very nice site!
August 21st, 2010 at 2:49 pm
Hello! abedkfe interesting abedkfe site!
August 21st, 2010 at 2:50 pm
Very nice site! cheap viagra
August 21st, 2010 at 2:50 pm
Very nice site! cheap cialis http://yieapxo.com/qroxtxq/4.html
August 21st, 2010 at 2:50 pm
Very nice site!
August 22nd, 2010 at 8:31 pm
Hello! dckgaeb interesting dckgaeb site!
August 22nd, 2010 at 8:32 pm
Very nice site! cheap viagra
August 22nd, 2010 at 8:32 pm
Very nice site! [url=http://opeyixa.com/rvqaax/2.html]cheap cialis[/url]
August 22nd, 2010 at 8:32 pm
Very nice site! cheap cialis http://opeyixa.com/rvqaax/4.html
August 22nd, 2010 at 8:32 pm
Very nice site!
August 28th, 2010 at 5:28 pm
I usually don’t post in Blogs but your blog forced me to, amazing work.. beautiful :
August 29th, 2010 at 2:30 am
I can’t dispute any of your statements. You should write more often!