张道达投资手记（091104）:老法师看盘 防范海外市场见顶(11月4日)
Posted on Nov 04, 2009 under 投资手记 |
张道达投资手记（091104）:老法师看盘 防范海外市场见顶(11月4日)
昨日，A股继续铿锵上行，沪指收盘涨1.22%，3100点也被拿下。而环顾周边市场却并不理想，多以下跌为主，尤其是香港恒生指数和H股指数，不顾A股的强势，在A股收盘后持续走弱，收盘分别下跌1.66%和1.89%。这种明显背离在我印象中还并不多见，应该是受到全球资本市场的影响所致。
澳洲央行继前期加息后，昨日再次宣布调高利息，但在这一利好之下，澳元兑美元汇价不涨反跌，美元指数同时也应声大涨，亚太股市节节下跌，而这种连锁反应快速扩散，欧洲主要股市昨日下午开盘后就跳水2%，估计今晨美股开盘后也难逃下跌命运，因为道指与美元负相关的走势已被屡屡印证。如果今晨美元反弹走势不变，今日A股的开盘将承受空头的考验，跳空低开的概率很大。
尽管近两个交易日A股走势较强，但是值得注意的是，海外市场的走势出现向空头市场转移的倾向。从周线MACD指标来看，美元完全有可能发动一波力度较大的反弹行情，而对应的道琼斯指数则越来越弱，有构筑中期头部之嫌，而恒生指数如果本周不能反攻，则已经在周线上发出中期卖出信号。
如果周边市场真的出现较大规模的调整，A股是否具备对周边市场不确定性持续性的免疫能力呢？从上周周边市场波动导致A股持续下调来看，恐怕年轻的中国股还会患上“少年维特的烦恼”，尽管从本周市场表现来看，似乎有神秘资金出面护盘，但在全球大背景下，能不大跌就已经是很强，如果还期望逆势大涨，我认为可能性很小，A股继续围绕60天均线宽幅震荡格局或是比较现实的选择。
由于与欧美股市存在交易时差，因其目前存在大幅波动的可能性，从而造成A股频现低开或高开的局面，给投资者的交易节奏带来影响，操作难度将加大不少。因此，在此阶段，投资者还是宜以短线套利交易为主，持仓时间不宜太长，以免吃到嘴里的“肉”被频繁的跳空开盘给震没了。
百万资金操作：无操作计划。
股票池操作：继续持仓。
November 4th, 2009 at 1:07 pm
哎，你越来越说得不准了。
November 4th, 2009 at 1:07 pm
A股这东西，总是和外围反着干的。昨天的大涨，有谁想到了？
又有什么理由大涨？
November 4th, 2009 at 1:44 pm
顶
March 13th, 2010 at 2:55 am
Hello! bbdecec interesting bbdecec site!
March 13th, 2010 at 2:55 am
Very nice site! cheap viagra
March 13th, 2010 at 2:55 am
Very nice site! [url=http://ypxaieo.com/oooxvty/2.html]cheap cialis[/url]
March 13th, 2010 at 2:56 am
Very nice site!
March 22nd, 2010 at 6:03 pm
RIIepO
April 3rd, 2010 at 1:04 pm
You made tremendous great ideas here. I done a research on the subject and learnt most peoples will agree with your blog.
April 3rd, 2010 at 4:09 pm
Thanks for taking the time to discuss this, I feel strongly about it and love learning more on this topic. If possible, as you gain expertise, would you mind updating your blog with more information? It is extremely helpful for me.
April 3rd, 2010 at 8:54 pm
Hey I love your style I will subscribe for your feed please keep posting!
April 3rd, 2010 at 11:29 pm
Took me time to read all the comments, but I really enjoyed the article. It proved to be very useful to me and I am sure to all the commenters here! It’s always nice when you can not only be informed, but also entertained! I’m sure you had joy writing this article.
April 4th, 2010 at 9:05 pm
Me and my friend were arguing about an issue similar to this! Now I know that I was right. lol! Thanks for the information you post.
April 8th, 2010 at 10:01 am
Hi I reach your site by mistake when i was searching bing for this wii issue, I must say your site is really helpful I also love the design, its amazing!. I dont have that much time to read all your post at the moment but I have bookmarked your site and also signed up for your RSS feeds. I will be back in a day or two. thanks for a great site.
April 13th, 2010 at 5:59 pm
You gave fantastic honest ideas here. I performed a research on the issue and discovered almost all peoples will agree with your blog.
April 24th, 2010 at 5:44 pm
You gave nice ideas here. I done a research on the issue and learnt most peoples will agree with your blog.
May 2nd, 2010 at 3:08 pm
Me and my friend were arguing about an issue similar to this! Now I know that I was right. lol! Thanks for the information you post.
May 7th, 2010 at 5:09 pm
I liked it!!!
May 13th, 2010 at 11:37 am
Thanks for taking the time to discuss this, I feel strongly about it and love learning more on this topic. If possible, as you gain expertise, would you mind updating your blog with more information? It is extremely helpful for me.
May 18th, 2010 at 8:04 pm
You had great positive ideas there. I did a search on the issue and found nearly all peoples will agree with your blog.
May 18th, 2010 at 8:07 pm
Hello! akbdbca interesting akbdbca site!
May 18th, 2010 at 8:07 pm
Very nice site! cheap viagra
May 18th, 2010 at 8:07 pm
Very nice site! [url=http://aixopey.com/qqatat/2.html]cheap cialis[/url]
May 18th, 2010 at 8:07 pm
Very nice site! cheap cialis http://aixopey.com/qqatat/4.html
May 18th, 2010 at 8:07 pm
Very nice site!
May 25th, 2010 at 6:37 am
KSjQEg
June 24th, 2010 at 11:32 pm
tvTCTV
August 24th, 2010 at 7:43 am
Hello! ecagfad interesting ecagfad site!
August 24th, 2010 at 7:43 am
Very nice site! cheap viagra
August 24th, 2010 at 7:43 am
Very nice site! [url=http://oieypxa.com/oryrsrr/2.html]cheap cialis[/url]
August 24th, 2010 at 7:43 am
Very nice site! cheap cialis http://oieypxa.com/oryrsrr/4.html
August 24th, 2010 at 7:43 am
Very nice site!
September 2nd, 2010 at 1:05 pm
This entry was a great read! I couldn’t have explained things better myself.