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Posted on Nov 17, 2009 under 投资手记 |
张道达投资手记（091117）：老法师看盘 2300亿成交含义(11月17日)
上周末我才提到：60日均线掉头向上，市场发出进攻的信号弹；昨日(16日)市场就迅速作出了反应。周一A股跳空大涨，两市均收出光头大阳线。
因此，对于这根大阳线，我并不感到奇怪。应该说是消息面和技术面共振的结果。一方面，上周市场强势震荡后，最终都将作出方向性选择。而60日均线实现向上掉头后，似乎就已暗示了市场掉头的方向。况且深综指数已经创出新高，榜样的力量是无穷的。沪指紧随其后上涨是大概率事件。
而从消息面来看，美国总统访华也透露出积极信号。银监会副主席蒋定之表示，目前房贷政策没有改变。消除了市场对调控地产股的担忧吧。而地产作为我国经济支柱性产业，且对多个行业将起到连锁反应。其走稳对多头自然有积极意义。
值得特别注意的是，昨日沪市2316亿元的成交，较上周五突然放大近4成。这个成交量级的水平和今年7月份大盘在3400一带的水平相当，上半年单日最大成交为3028亿元。那么，巨量成交背后的含义是什么呢？从昨日盘面来看，权重股的集体放量上涨是导致成交放大的主要原因，中小盘股走势略弱于大盘股，市场风格有向蓝筹转向的迹象，但还需要观察。如果大盘股持续三日以上走强，就可以确定风格转向了。而权重股多为机构重仓品种，如果连续走强，也说明机构也动起来了，冬季行情发动了。当然，如果他们只是一个脉冲式上涨的话，就要引起警惕了。毕竟在冲击前期高点的时候，没有权重股参与是难以实现攻击成功的。此外，如此大的量也说明了，不少前期的套牢盘或获利筹码出局，不过目前看仍然多方战优势，相信随指数进一步走高后，市场的震荡还是难以避免。
短期大盘而言，经过昨日两市强劲上扬后，多头士气大受鼓舞，预计短期大盘顺势继续上攻的概率较大，可顺势做多或持股。不过股指在接近前期高点3478点的时候，或者沪市成交量接近上半年单日成交量之最3000亿时还是宜注意防范风险，进行减仓操作。如果确定突破成功，再行加仓也不迟。
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