张道达投资手记（091128）：老法师看盘 三因素决定反弹力度(28日)
Posted on Nov 29, 2009 under 投资手记 |
张道达投资手记（091128）：老法师看盘 三因素决定反弹力度(28日)
本周股市急剧降温，银行巨额融资传言突然来袭，大盘新股发行重新开闸。而外围市场，迪拜危机、美元反弹接踵而至，A股在内外夹击下，几乎展开雪崩似下跌。沪指一周大跌6.41%。入冬以来多空的第一次大决战，空头取得完胜。
那么，后市将如何演绎呢？让我们来听听道达的观点吧。
120周线再成拦路虎
记者：这周市场是不是跌得太过度了？
道达：我上周末说过，冲关不可能一蹴而就，操作上需要保留几分谨慎，但如此猛烈的下跌还是令我意外。连续几根大阴线也正式宣布短期调整的来临。究其原因，可以说是多方面作用力共振的结果。
首先，沪指遇到了120周线的猛烈狙击，在上半年行情中，大盘也是遭遇120周线后进入调整的，因此在120周均线附近注定多空将有一场恶战。其次，消息面利空重重：大盘新股恢复发行，同时传闻几大银行研究再融资方案；经济工作会议时间未明朗，越南加息，给政策预期平添变数；周五(27日)又传来“迪拜危机”，冲击全球资本市场。神经最敏感的资本市场自然难敌这些压力。
记者：这样的下跌似乎很像“7·29”大跌后的走势，来得又快又猛。这样的跌势还会上演吗？
道达：我曾经对此问题进行过比较，结论是形似神不似，但是我的判断只对了一半，这次调整的结果更为猛烈，“7·29”之后还有连续3天大涨才展开大跌，而本次大盘仅涨了一天后就喊“腿软”了。
你问的问题，实际上就涉及对大跌根源的分析。我认为，决定跌势是否延续的关键因素，应该关注三个方面。一是即将召开的中央经济工作会议的基调，如果是符合市场预期的基调，大盘止跌的可能性就较大。二是“迪拜危机”是否会演绎成第二个“雷曼事件”？还会给全球资本市场带来哪些新的冲击？对该事件要保持密切的关注。三是要看美元指数，本周末其走势又开始转强，周线上随时可能出现变数，这将影响热钱流向。
下周市场或有反弹
记者：跌了200多点后，下周是不是有反弹呢？
道达：我在周五的文章中提醒大家，收盘跌破5周均线就该降低仓位，毕竟在目前比较复杂的环境下，将仓位控制在一个安全的比例，睡觉可能会更放心一些，因为股市的钱赚不完，却可以亏完。
周五收盘之后，大盘已经接近了60天均线和120天均线了。这两条均线对于多头的中期战略具有重要意义，相信该点位应该具有较强的支撑，会有一个反弹产生。至于反弹力度，要关注上面分析过的三个因素了。如果乐观，则反弹的力度和强度会较大，甚至不排除逐渐结束调整。反之，则大盘之后还会向下寻求新的平衡。
记者：那么，操作上如何是好呢？
道达：在市场进入调整行情后，目前操作的难度显然已经加大了，因此操作上应该首先控制仓位；其次，降低利润预期，应该多下功夫研究个股基本面。本周创业板的神州泰岳已经涨到120多元，记得我在其上市后就指出其在90元~100元的定价是合理的，目前也逆势涨了20%以上。神州泰岳之所以受到追捧，是因为绝对收益高，成长性良好，业绩增长明确，而且盘子小有高送转的预期。因此后市操作上，由于已经接近年底，这样的选股思路不妨为一个选择之一。
另外，周五(27日)上市的新股东方园林首日涨幅接近翻番，再看看最近上市的新股多数走出震荡上涨态势，可见资金的投机热情依然不减，还没有明显怯意。因此我认为，只要新股的炒作能维持，大盘一旦企稳，市场对低价股、题材股的投机炒作应该还会延续。
百万资金操作：无操作计划。
股票池操作：继续持仓。
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