张道达投资手记（091202）：老法师看盘：左右行情的一个重要因素

Posted on Dec 02, 2009 under 投资手记 |

张道达投资手记（091202）：老法师看盘：左右行情的一个重要因素

近期关于银行股融资的问题成了业内人士关注的焦点。在此我也再多说几句。以何种形式来解决银行股融资问题或许将成为决定行情是否能突破前高，甚至跨年度行情是否展开的关键因素。
　　如果管理层仍按常规出牌来完成银行股的融资，那么市场在巨额融资压力下，向下选择方向几乎没有悬疑。这样的教训在上周上演过，也在8月份上演过，彼时有关地产股密集融资等计划就成为压垮大盘的最后稻草。现在又轮到大银行股上阵了，如果不妥善处理好，银行股威力更猛，大盘后果恐怕也不堪设想。
　　当然，如果管理层见招拆招，兵来将挡，使用非常规手段–如通过推出股指期货，融资融券来对冲银行股融资压力的话，那么银行股反而将成机构必配品种，况且银行股目前估值本身也处于相对低位，在机构抢筹下，难保不出现一波大级别行情，届时恐怕3478点也难以压住。如果银行股融资形式能在12月明确，那么跨年度行情展开的概率就更大了。
　　再说昨（1）日大盘，在上周遭遇猛烈呛水后，这两天终于缓过神来。昨日沪指放量上涨40点，多头大有3478点关山，而今从头越的意味。
　　而沪指放量上涨已经将5日、20日线收复，沪指也重新回到了9、10月反弹形成的趋势通道上轨之上；5周均线也被收复并掉头向上，如果本周最后三个交易日没有出现大跌，则让中期向上的趋势得到修复。
　　短期来看，在中央经济工作会议召开前夕，而且政策基调已经确立的背景下，后市延续平稳格局应无多大悬念。看看创业板的吉峰农机复牌后再度冲击涨停，有这一些活跃资金的鼓舞；相信各路资金也不会闲着，围绕各类题材的个股机会也会层出不穷，可在控制风险的前提下参与。
　　百万资金操作：无操作计划。
　　股票池操作：继续持仓。

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