张道达投资手记（091209）：老法师看盘 汇金泼冷水(12月9日)

Posted on Dec 09, 2009 under 投资手记 |

张道达投资手记（091209）：老法师看盘 汇金泼冷水(12月9日)

正在丹麦首都——哥本哈根召开的世界气候大会，被喻为是“拯救地球最后的机会”的会议。但是从媒体的报道来看，由于各国在减排量等问题上展开博弈，会议能否最终达成一致意见仍存变数。有关专家就指出，哥本哈根会议不是一个谈判的终点，而是作为一个中间阶段，取得一些阶段性的成果，后面的问题还要继续解决。这也给此前对会议充满期待的人泼上一瓢冷水。

　　而A股市场上，12月8日，汇金公司也给市场泼上一瓢冷水。据媒体报道，中央汇金公司副董事长李剑阁表示，内地银行资本充足率不足的问题应采用市场化办法解决，中央汇金无意让国有银行减发股息来补充资本金。而据测算，银行要达到监管要求，需要的融资规模将达到2100亿元。通过市场化手段解决也就意味着可能采用增发或配股等方式来融资，将大量分流市场资金。机构们也是闻声就跑，银行股昨日集体性大幅下跌，成为股指盘中深幅调整的主因。

　　尽管石化双雄一度护盘，但受到美元走势偏强束缚，力度也偏弱，全日也没有将股指拉红。而8家创业板新股启动招股，也制约了多头做多的士气。沪指收盘下跌1.06%。

　　从均线上看，沪指重新跌落到120周均线之下，而且120周线也还没有掉头向上。我认为，尽管前日经济工作会议确定了积极政策不退出的基调，但是由于银行权重大，对股指的影响大，在银行再融资方式没有明朗前，加上美元走势偏强和大幅波动，多空围绕120周均线的争夺还将继续，股指的大幅波动将是近期的大概率事件，操作的难度将加大，应注意把握好市场的节奏和控制风险。

　　百万资金操作：无操作计划。

　　股票池操作：无操作计划。

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