张道达投资手记（091215）：老法师看盘 迪拜利好治短痛(12月15日)
Posted on Dec 15, 2009 under 投资手记 |
张道达投资手记（091215）：老法师看盘 迪拜利好治短痛(12月15日)
12月14日，A股投资者又经历了一个冰火两重天的交易日。受美元大反弹和中国一重拟上会等打击，沪指在盘中一度大跌近70点，A股岌岌可危；然而，戏剧性的一幕在午后发生，受迪拜政府宣布收到阿布扎比的100亿美元援助刺激，港股出现井喷行情，由此重燃了A股的多头激情，成功收复失地。
没想到这一次拯救A股的 “白衣骑士”，却是在11月下旬担当“大盘杀手”的迪拜。迪拜在地球的哪个位置？恐怕很多股民都不知道，但是小小迪拜的却能制造出A股如此大的波动，充分说明一点，关起门来炒A股的时代已经越来越远离我们。
事实上，除迪拜这种突发事件外，如今包括国际股市走向、全球外汇走势、国际油价走势都在刺激着A股的神经。A股投资者如今面临的环境除了要看政策风向、庄家脸色之外，还要关注外围众多因素的脸色，对于众多散户而言，炒股的环境越来越复杂了，赚钱难度越来越大。
因此我认为，个人投资者未来面临三种命运：要想在市场生存，只有刻苦学习专业知识，走专业化道路，将自己武装起来，才可以应对“新形势”下的“战斗”；如果不学习又要自己操盘，恐怕最终要被股市掏空，不是遭遇迪拜危机的重创，也会倒在其他变数之中；如果有自知之明者，承认自己是弱势群体，最好的办法还是购买基金，虽然基金业受到老鼠仓的困扰，但买基金的回报仍比很多个人投资者更稳健。
话题还是回到变幻莫测的市场，虽然大盘股昨日接过了上涨旗帜，但是否打响了向上攻击的第三枪呢？市场风格能否成功转换呢？我认为先不急于下结论，看看率先逆转的港股市场，除了在昨日中午12点之后暴涨12分钟之外，其后便无力上攻了，多头的连续攻击能力依然有限，迪拜的利好只是一剂短期“止痛剂”。
而这一点在A股市场也有所体现，尽管大盘股发飙，但是市场成交额远低于12月4日，可见不少机构资金仍持观望态度。如果多头的第三枪打响，是一个全面总攻的信号，那么市场成交必然持续放大，蓝筹股上涨也将具可持续性，120周均线也会被有效站稳，所以多看两天，未必会踏空多少行情，却可以避开买在震荡高点的风险。
百万资金操作：无操作计划。
股票池操作：无操作计划。
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