张道达投资手记（091218）：老法师看盘 破发不是信号(12月18日)

Posted on Dec 18, 2009 under 投资手记 |

张道达投资手记（091218）：老法师看盘 破发不是信号(12月18日)

在近期的震荡市道中，A股完全丧失战斗力，呈上涨乏力，下跌容易的局面。12月17日，支撑多日的多头阵营终于松动，沪指大幅下跌，略微的放量也意味着市场隐约有恐慌的迹象。

　　市场疲软运行的根源究竟在哪儿呢？我认为供求关系的变数应该是原因之一，资金与筹码的平衡被打乱后，引起市场的大幅波动。

　　一方面，市场筹码快速供应，新股加速扩容，似乎还看不到停止的信号，在本周10股发行后，下周依然有10只新股发行，而传言兴业证券又要来融60亿元，大有此情绵绵无绝期的感觉。另一方面，从外部因素来看，美元连续三周反弹，全球热钱继续回流美国本土市场；而银监会近期又发布了《商业银行资本充足率信息披露指引》，明确提出核心资本总额、资本充足率、核心资本充足率等重要信息应每季度披露，要达到每个季度都符合监管要求，这或将意味着每个季度的信贷规模可能会比较平均，预期中的年初大放量可能要落空。空头三路大军夹击，多头岂有不慌之理？

　　就在昨日，招商证券进一步远离发行价，成为今年首只破发新股。而在以往的行情中，出现次新股逼近发行价后就引发一波大级别的反弹，那么招商证券破发是否也意味着大反弹即将来临呢？对此我持怀疑态度。

　　我认为，对跌破发行价应该有新的认识，过去的新股是以20倍的市盈率发行，破发说明市场极度低迷，这是管理层的容忍底线，所以存在反弹可能；而以56倍的高市盈率发行的招商证券破发显然不具有代表性，应属于价值的正常回归。

　　那么，如何来判断大盘是否止跌呢？我认为，倒可以关注两个比较直观的指标。一是看美元何时走弱，从近期表现来看，由于美元强势给全球资本市场都带来负面影响，可能只有等美元走弱后，资本市场才会迎来喘息之机；二是看目前连创新高的持仓账户数何时拐头向下，因为大家都冲着跨年度行情吃了一肚子货，套在高处，机构又不来当“解放军”，如何涨得动呢？这种局面下，只有一些套牢盘被迫割肉，跨年度行情才有可能被激发出来。

　　百万资金操作：无操作计划。

　　股票池操作：无操作计划。

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