张道达投资手记（091224）：老法师看盘 反弹信号隐现(12月24日)
Posted on Dec 24, 2009 under 投资手记 |
张道达投资手记（091224）：老法师看盘 反弹信号隐现(12月24日)
12月23日，大盘就像过山车一样，忽上忽下，盘中股指出现较大幅震荡。我在此前曾说过，大盘止跌需要出现震荡和放量。昨日的震荡中，几乎维持在前日收盘点位上方运行，显示多头短期偏强。
技术面来看，沪指60分钟MACD指标已触底开始调头向上运行，60分钟KDJ也开始调头向上。而从120天均线此前被击破后的表现来看，都引发了回抽，因此短期市场出现技术性反弹也在常理中，当然反弹的高度和力度还要取决于随后的量能，如果量能不有效放大，那么这种反弹就可能是昙花一现。
虽然大盘短期具有了反弹的条件，但还不能说大盘趋势就得以改观。因为市场成交依然萎缩，沪指也只是在半年线下方收出一根方向不明的小阳线而已。而决定中期走势有一个重要信号，那就是管理层对待新股破发的态度。昨日，中国中冶成继招商证券后，今年第二只不幸破发的大盘股。招商破发还可理解，毕竟发行市盈率高企，而中冶静态市盈率已降至21倍，这更多是代表了人气开始走低。
新股猛于虎遭到市场用脚投票，管理层将如何对待呢？假如管理层真如此前所说，采取市场化的手段应对破发，继续保持新股的高速扩容，让市场自己去寻找合理价格，那么这种破发效应还不是二级市场见底的标志，而各大投行将采取降低新股发行市盈率的方式来应对。昨天，中国北车主动缩减了发行规模，也可视为上市公司向市场作出的让步，而这是不是市场化发行将延续的信号呢？需继续观察。
而如果管理层使用行政手段果断停止扩容步伐，或减缓发行节奏，那么说明管理层不能容忍目前的新股破发，对市场无疑传递了一个利多信号，市场可能会再度活跃起来。究竟管理层将采取何种方式来应对，我们虽没有非常灵通的消息渠道，无法提前知道其意图，但可通过对新股发审公告的跟踪来判断，这种公开信息是很有价值的。
百万资金操作：无操作计划。
股票池操作：无操作计划。
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