张道达投资手记（091226）：老法师看盘 提防二次探底(12月26日)
Posted on Dec 28, 2009 under 投资手记 |
张道达投资手记（091226）：老法师看盘 提防二次探底(12月26日)
还剩4个交易日，A股就将跨过2009年。本周A股市场终于止住前期恐慌性跌势，沪指周涨幅0.88%，周线收出一根带长下影的小阳线。
那么，经过一番寒彻骨后，大盘能否发动迟来的跨年度行情，为投资者送上元旦礼包呢？明年行情又将如何演绎？让我们来听听道达的精彩观点。
二次探底风险未除
记者：本周市场波动真是大啊，周初大跌，下半周又拉上来。市场在3100点附近展开拉锯。
道达：是的。大盘从3300点再度下跌后在3050点附近遇到支撑，是技术面和消息面共同作用的结果。一是技术面超跌，而且中期重要均线半年线在被跌破后有回抽要求，3050点附近既是2007年1月到3月平台整理的高点，又是去年4月底的阶段性底部，因此具有较强的支撑。消息面主要是美元回落，新基金继续发行，以及中国建筑增持等利好因素促成了周四的反弹。
记者：但是周五大盘未能延续强势，你如何看待？
道达：对周五的缩量强势震荡，我倾向于持谨慎态度。缩量代表机构们进场抢筹的意愿并不强烈。如果机构们十分看好后市，应该是毫不犹豫地继续大举进场抢夺筹码，市场也将出现放量续涨的走势。当然，缩量震荡总比放量下跌要好得多，如果周五是放量下跌，可以说直接就宣布了反弹行情的结束。
而正是这样一根缩量小阴线增加了判断的难度。历史上比较相似的例子是在2007年11月14日，沪指出现长阳反弹之后，次日受阻10日线，大盘收出一根缩量阴线，随后继续探底，从5365点跌到4778点才探明阶段性底部。因此，后市大盘不能排除二次探底的风险，需要适度提防，但考虑到年末机构们作业绩的需要，最后4个交易日的抛压应该相对有限，大盘再次出现明确的方向选择可能要等待明年年初了。
扩容压力明年1月将减缓
记者：刚才你说机构进场意愿不强，那么机构还在犹豫什么呢？
道达：我想几个不明朗的因素可能是机构不敢大胆进场的原因。
一是明年信贷数据是否真像银监会要求的那样会保持均衡放贷？如果真的保持均衡，可能就距离机构的流动性预期相差甚远，对市场有利空影响；二是宏观经济数据是否依然保持符合预期的上扬；三是宏观调控政策，包括地产调控政策后期会如何演变；四是美元的反弹走势将如何运行。
或许只有出现超出多头预期的信号之后，机构才会大胆抢筹。我认为，美元短期应该维持盘整，国内的经济数据应该继续平稳增长，主要的不确定性在于信贷数据和调控政策这两个因素，需要走一步看一步。
记者：这些因素要到明年1月才能清晰了？
道达：相比不确定因素，可以预期的是，明年1月份的扩容压力肯定会比今年12月份小一些。因为明年上会的企业要补充2009年财报才能够上会，考虑到财报制定及春节假日因素，1月份的新股审核很可能放缓，扩容压力也可以有所缓和，这算是一个利多因素。
百万资金操作：无操作计划。
股票池操作：无操作计划。
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