张道达投资手记(091231):老法师看盘 期指不是纸老虎(12月31日)

Posted on Dec 31, 2009 under 投资手记 |

张道达投资手记(091231):老法师看盘 期指不是纸老虎(12月31日)

时间即将跨过2009年A股市场,在元旦即将来临的时刻,A股市场也洋溢着节日的气氛。昨日,沪指在权重股的推动下,再度大涨,成交量也突然放大,走出了三连阳的态势。

  仔细研究消息面,不难发现,市场异动起因于一条“国务院昨日已经批准了股指期货”的消息所致,据报道该消息在包括基金等VIP机构大客户中迅速传播,而盘面上也立马有了反应,权重股闻风而动,一路放量上攻,期货概念股更是兴奋,收盘几乎集体奔涨停。不可否认,在创业板成功推出之后,最大和最迫切的金融创新就是股指期货了,这是2010年的一个重头戏。如果股指期货将推出,机构为了在未来的股指期货大战中抢占制高点,必将加紧收集权重股筹码;而期货公司也将增加新的利润点,故而导致期货概念等股兴奋。

  不过,我在昨天的文章已分析过股指期货危险的一面:在一个并非真正全流通的市场,指标股存在高杠杆,股指存在容易被操纵的风险。一旦推出后,对广大散户和伪高手来说将是个高风险的工具,会成为虎年中的吞钱“猛虎”,而绝不是“纸老虎”。

  从目前的消息面判断,股指期货的推进是大概率事件,但就短期的操作而言,在推出时间表还不明确的情况下,个人投资者最重要的是把握住炒作路线图,大家可以借鉴创业板推出前后,市场对相关概念股的炒作节奏来参与。即在正式获批消息明朗后,市场会有短期的兴奋,这期间利用相关个股的急速上涨进行高抛,然后等待市场恢复平静之后,伴随相关配套制度不断完善的每一步进程,反复参与波段炒作,而在股指期货正式实现交易之后,相关炒作也将达到最高潮,则不宜再参与了。

  在股指期货获批传闻催化下,昨日大盘拿下了空头把持多时的120周均线,但是并未真正站稳,仅仅越过120周均线2点,其有效性还需要观察,即要放量超过该均线3%的比例,至少站稳3天才可以确认其有效性。而如果今日消息面没能确认股指期货获批的消息,空头必定还会反扑。

  百万资金操作:无操作计划。

  股票池操作:无操作计划。

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