张道达投资手记（091231）：老法师看盘 期指不是纸老虎(12月31日)
Posted on Dec 31, 2009 under 投资手记 |
张道达投资手记（091231）：老法师看盘 期指不是纸老虎(12月31日)
时间即将跨过2009年A股市场，在元旦即将来临的时刻，A股市场也洋溢着节日的气氛。昨日，沪指在权重股的推动下，再度大涨，成交量也突然放大，走出了三连阳的态势。
仔细研究消息面，不难发现，市场异动起因于一条“国务院昨日已经批准了股指期货”的消息所致，据报道该消息在包括基金等VIP机构大客户中迅速传播，而盘面上也立马有了反应，权重股闻风而动，一路放量上攻，期货概念股更是兴奋，收盘几乎集体奔涨停。不可否认，在创业板成功推出之后，最大和最迫切的金融创新就是股指期货了，这是2010年的一个重头戏。如果股指期货将推出，机构为了在未来的股指期货大战中抢占制高点，必将加紧收集权重股筹码；而期货公司也将增加新的利润点，故而导致期货概念等股兴奋。
不过，我在昨天的文章已分析过股指期货危险的一面：在一个并非真正全流通的市场，指标股存在高杠杆，股指存在容易被操纵的风险。一旦推出后，对广大散户和伪高手来说将是个高风险的工具，会成为虎年中的吞钱“猛虎”，而绝不是“纸老虎”。
从目前的消息面判断，股指期货的推进是大概率事件，但就短期的操作而言，在推出时间表还不明确的情况下，个人投资者最重要的是把握住炒作路线图，大家可以借鉴创业板推出前后，市场对相关概念股的炒作节奏来参与。即在正式获批消息明朗后，市场会有短期的兴奋，这期间利用相关个股的急速上涨进行高抛，然后等待市场恢复平静之后，伴随相关配套制度不断完善的每一步进程，反复参与波段炒作，而在股指期货正式实现交易之后，相关炒作也将达到最高潮，则不宜再参与了。
在股指期货获批传闻催化下，昨日大盘拿下了空头把持多时的120周均线，但是并未真正站稳，仅仅越过120周均线2点，其有效性还需要观察，即要放量超过该均线3%的比例，至少站稳3天才可以确认其有效性。而如果今日消息面没能确认股指期货获批的消息，空头必定还会反扑。
百万资金操作：无操作计划。
股票池操作：无操作计划。
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