张道达投资手记（100107）：老法师看盘 短调并非变盘信号(1月7日)

Posted on Jan 07, 2010 under 投资手记 |

张道达投资手记（100107）：老法师看盘 短调并非变盘信号(1月7日)

继《泰坦尼克号》之后，美国大导演詹姆斯·卡梅隆精心筹划13年，推出又一电影力作《阿凡达》，再度引起世人轰动。该影片在全球各地几乎都创出票房纪录，而1月4日在国内放映首日，就逼近4000万票房。而台上几百分钟却是花费了电影人多年的心血。据了解，数年间，该片前后众多的投资人在影片的成本、宣传等方面花费都超5亿美元，可谓是十年磨一剑，十年才修得“正果”，也算令人欣慰。

　　我不禁联想到近期牵动A股市场神经的股指期货来，从相关方面呼吁到2006年金融期货交易所成立至今，A股投资人对股指期货也期盼了数年吧。近期关于股指期货的呼声日盛，相关个股如大盘股，期货概念股也不时出来活跃一番，但也是闻声才动，不闻声就回落，没能带动大盘持续走强。《阿凡达》在没有推出来前，看客也只有想的份，只有推出后才会带来轰动效应。我想，或许股指期货也只有在推出时间表明朗后，市场才敢于持续追捧相关个股，从而推动指数持续上扬。不过，截至目前股指期货还没有一个明确的时间表。1月6日，沪指在逼近3300点整数关口后，由于大盘股的犹豫而回落，最终午盘后出现小幅跳水行情，沪指最终以下跌28点收盘。

　　实际上，大盘此前已在3300一线展开过3次激战，昨日逼近该点位后，一些套牢盘趁机出逃也是预料中事；而短线刀客们历来也不喜欢打攻坚战，遇到技术阻力位，通常是三十六计走为上；再加上，今日8只创业板股将发行以及中国化学上市的影响，在反弹中执行逢高出局纪律的资金也加紧出局，从而导演了小跳水行情。

　　不过，昨日多空一役后，我觉得不能凭此就判断升势结束。因为个股依然活跃，一个典型的例子是天通股份业绩大降公告出来后，股价却逆势大涨，资金毫不理会消息面变化，按照既定的方针行事。而尽管股指跳水，但个股并未恐慌下跌，两市无跌停票，跌幅在5%以上的个股也仅5只。此外，沪指也依然站在120周均线之上。总体来看，市场仍然在正常的轨道内波动，各路资金处于按部就班状态。刚刚拉开的赛马比赛应不会就此草草结束，如果大盘走势更顺畅，那么股指期货时间表明朗将是重要条件；否则行情或以震荡扬升的方式展开。

　　百万资金操作：无操作计划。

　　股票池操作：无操作计划。

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