张道达投资手记（100116）：老法师看盘 破盘局还看政策(1月16日)
Posted on Jan 18, 2010 under 投资手记 |
张道达投资手记（100116）：老法师看盘 破盘局还看政策(1月16日)
3000点以上，大盘走得好艰难。资金的收紧，不断袭击和考验着多头的承受力，股指呈大波动走势；然而，个股却精彩纷呈。那么，经过两个月盘整的大盘，如何才能打破盘局呢？个股能否继续炒作呢？让我们来听听道达的精彩观点吧！
中石化或成风向标
记者：僵持多时的大盘如何才能突破盘局呢？
道达：目前大盘无论向上还是向下突破，都需要政策。一是本周单日成交量较大，两市都基本维持在2000亿元以上，对多空双方能量的消耗都很大，谁都难以发动致命的一击来突破盘局。二是A股市场本来就有 “政策市”特征。我认为，政策方面要密切关注央行的举动，以分辨其近期的行为究竟是对冲短期流动性过大的风险还是真正的紧缩。此外管理层对市场的看法，新股发行节奏、行业政策变动如股指期货的进程等也值得关注。
记者：有没有一个具体的指标来检测大盘动向呢？
道达：有，可以参考两个方面的指标，一是大盘成交量，如果在下跌中，出现持续缩量，就可能变盘，而在上涨中，逐步放量也可能导致趋势变化。二是中石化动向，从本周行情可以看出其已成为多头手中主要的武器。事实上，中石化权证将在2月下旬到期，如果要实现行权融资，股价只有达到19.15元以上，而目前股价距此价位还有近50%的上涨空间。如果中石化为融资而释放利好，那么其上涨对指数的推动是可想而知的。
两类个股仍有可为
记者：本周大盘指数波动很大，但泛科技股和高送转股却走出了独立行情，你怎么看？
道达：科技股的走强，其实从本周明朗的3网融合政策等来看，还是各路资金围绕政策推动行业中机会的挖掘。在年报公布期间，高送转行情历来都是A股炒作的习惯，实属正常。
记者：但科技股和高送转行情已经演绎了2周以上，周五(1月15日)科技股出现走软迹象，是否要调整？
道达：先说年报行情，从历史经验来看，炒作周期不会短暂展开后就结束，通常公布前炒一波，公布后继续炒，实施方案前后也会拉一波。由于高送转符合A股炒作习惯，同时也不排除其中个股存在高成长性，预计还会继续演绎。而科技股更多的是一种靠想象来推动的行情，力度或许要弱一点，同时还要看政策的变化；从目前资金的追捧程度来看，也还会反复活跃，仍存在交易机会。因此在当前，大家仍可关注年报高送转股和科技股等。
百万资金操作：无操作计划。
股票池操作：无操作计划。
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