张道达投资手记（100123）：老法师看盘 谨防指数不跌个股跌(23日)
Posted on Jan 25, 2010 under 投资手记 |
张道达投资手记（100123）：老法师看盘 谨防指数不跌个股跌(23日)
溪云初起日沉阁，山雨欲来风满楼。用这样的词来形容本周的市场应不为过。消息面上各类实在的或传闻的利空，一个接一个袭向脆弱的市场；前期高度活跃的个股行情戛然而止，全周沪指跌幅近3%，短期上升通道昨日也失守，大盘告急。而昨日午后股指的回升，难道是多头铁马金戈般的驰援 “部队”到来，还是多头的负隅顽抗呢？让我们来听听道达的精彩观点吧！
政策打破盘局
记者：上周你就提到，打破盘局的关键在于政策。
道达：难道不是这样吗？本周大盘击破去年9月和12月形成的上升通道下轨，打破短期盘整格局，最主要的就是政策面的动向令人担忧。本周存款准备金率正式上调后，周四再提高央票利率；昨日，大盘股二重重装发行，而中国一重20亿股招股也启动。资金收紧迹象愈加明显。而在这样的背景下，有关加息和提高印花税，收紧信贷等传言更是呈山雨欲来风满楼之势。去年经济数据周四公布后，环比较高的CPI数据再度让人联想到进一步的资金紧缩政策。此外，股指期货上市时间提前，也打乱市场原有的节奏。
记者：是的，资金紧缩的迹象很明显。那么，这种紧缩和2008年的资金紧缩有没有区别呢？
道达：我认为，虽然同为资金紧缩，但是所处的经济环境是不一样的。2008年资金紧缩的背景是经济出现全面过热，尤其是通胀率高企，管理层为压制经济过热和通胀采取的“灭火”措施。而如今紧缩的背景是在经济刚复苏，通胀有显露迹象而采取的预防措施，以让经济增长更健康，长远看有利于经济的更健康运行。因此对市场的影响也不一样，换言之，目前的紧缩政策不会导致市场出现2008年那样的单边下跌。
风格能否转换还需观察
记者：下周市场会否企稳呢？
道达：近期市场的剧烈波动，是上述资金紧缩导致市场还没有适应过来的阵痛反应，此外股指期货将推出，在新的交易机制将来临前，市场的估值体系也面临重构，因此在资金没有达成共识前，也注定了股指的波动很剧烈。本周大盘击破短期上升通道下轨后，但仍处于从1664点以来的上升通道下轨和3478点下跌以来重要高点所形成的压力线所构成的大三角形整理范围内。因此只要不跌破下轨，大的上升趋势也就还在，下周能否止跌也还要看大盘股如何反应了，若仅仅是一个脉冲式反弹，股指再度向下寻求支撑的概率也就难以避免。
记者：昨日若非大盘股，特别是银行股的绝地反击，估计指数会很难看哦。
道达：是的。如果大盘股能止跌企稳，那么大盘就有望止跌反弹，如果银行股能够走出多头排列的走势出来，还不排除市场风格开始转向蓝筹股。但是，即使大盘止跌反弹，我觉得很多个股可能还会逆势下跌，因为在股指期货、融资融券将推出的影响下，部分个股高高在上的估值，势必难以持续，资金正想方设法出逃题材股，股价向价值回归将是大势所趋。因此，需要谨防指数不跌而个股下跌的风险啊。
百万资金操作：无操作计划。
股票池操作：无操作计划。
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