张道达投资手记(100126):老法师看盘 《阿凡达》显力量(26日)
Posted on Jan 26, 2010 under 投资手记 |
张道达投资手记(100126):老法师看盘 《阿凡达》显力量(26日)
上周末,虽然没有出现让大家不寒而栗的加息利空,然而却又冒出了中国银行400亿的再融资计划。1月25日的大盘,虽然经历上周连续下挫,做空能量有所消耗,多头乘机几度欲拉升,但最终因人气不足未果。
说到市场的底气不足,估计还是与中国银行的再融资有关。截至上周,目前排队发行的几只大盘股要么已发,要么正在发行。可以说排队的几只大盘股,已被安排妥当。一度让市场认为,融资可能迎来一个真空期;然而中行再融资的启动告诉市场两个信号:一是银行股的融资已迫在眉睫,拉开银行股融资序幕,接下来还有谁会融资自然引起市场的担心。二是,使用可转债方式融资,虽考虑了市场的承受力,但无论形式如何改变,却无法改变圈钱的本质!昨日市场大幅缩量,热点几乎全消,也再度说明,市场不是给点阳光就可以灿烂的了。
而经过近期连续下跌后,股指的中短期均线系统几乎呈现出全面的空头排列阵势。上周三的时候,沪指均线尚交织在一起,而此后,股指伴随连续的回落而呈现出向下发散的走势。MACD指标也刺破零柱,进入空头市场,市场的中短期趋势显得很危急。
对于趋势的力量切不可大意,当趋势形成后,其力量将非常强大。一个最近的例子,热映的大片《阿凡达》在国内票房已经突破1亿美元,创出内地市场首部票房超过1亿美元的电影。而这样的成绩还是在2D的《阿凡达》已停止上映的情况下产生的,虽然3D影院数量相对较少,但却难以阻挡影迷们的热情,自然票房呈现强大的上升趋势。
因此,在目前市场初步显露出空头趋势的情况下,如果多头不尽快发动攻势,扭转颓势,等待空头趋势彻底形成后;那么,大盘的杀跌力量估计也会超出预期了。操作上,严控仓位,减少操作,也算是顺应趋势而为的法则吧。
百万资金操作:无操作计划。
股票池操作:无操作计划。


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