张道达投资手记（100126）：老法师看盘 《阿凡达》显力量(26日)
Posted on Jan 26, 2010 under 投资手记 |
张道达投资手记（100126）：老法师看盘 《阿凡达》显力量(26日)
上周末，虽然没有出现让大家不寒而栗的加息利空，然而却又冒出了中国银行400亿的再融资计划。1月25日的大盘，虽然经历上周连续下挫，做空能量有所消耗，多头乘机几度欲拉升，但最终因人气不足未果。
说到市场的底气不足，估计还是与中国银行的再融资有关。截至上周，目前排队发行的几只大盘股要么已发，要么正在发行。可以说排队的几只大盘股，已被安排妥当。一度让市场认为，融资可能迎来一个真空期；然而中行再融资的启动告诉市场两个信号：一是银行股的融资已迫在眉睫，拉开银行股融资序幕，接下来还有谁会融资自然引起市场的担心。二是，使用可转债方式融资，虽考虑了市场的承受力，但无论形式如何改变，却无法改变圈钱的本质！昨日市场大幅缩量，热点几乎全消，也再度说明，市场不是给点阳光就可以灿烂的了。
而经过近期连续下跌后，股指的中短期均线系统几乎呈现出全面的空头排列阵势。上周三的时候，沪指均线尚交织在一起，而此后，股指伴随连续的回落而呈现出向下发散的走势。MACD指标也刺破零柱，进入空头市场，市场的中短期趋势显得很危急。
对于趋势的力量切不可大意，当趋势形成后，其力量将非常强大。一个最近的例子，热映的大片《阿凡达》在国内票房已经突破1亿美元，创出内地市场首部票房超过1亿美元的电影。而这样的成绩还是在2D的《阿凡达》已停止上映的情况下产生的，虽然3D影院数量相对较少，但却难以阻挡影迷们的热情，自然票房呈现强大的上升趋势。
因此，在目前市场初步显露出空头趋势的情况下，如果多头不尽快发动攻势，扭转颓势，等待空头趋势彻底形成后；那么，大盘的杀跌力量估计也会超出预期了。操作上，严控仓位，减少操作，也算是顺应趋势而为的法则吧。
百万资金操作：无操作计划。
股票池操作：无操作计划。
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