张道达投资手记（20100128）：老法师看盘 等待利空释放(1月28日)
Posted on Jan 28, 2010 under 投资手记 |
张道达投资手记（20100128）：老法师看盘 等待利空释放(1月28日)
27日，3000点大关就像纸老虎，被空头一捅即破。反弹在盘中昙花一现后，尾盘就被如潮的抛压给重重打了下来。沪指在事隔半年后，重新回到“2”时代。
看到大盘病来如山倒般的走势，我不禁想到去年8月的暴跌来，当时股指也从“3”时代被空头带回到“2”时代。彼时，大盘从3478点空降至2639点，空降839点，跌幅达24%，而导致大盘连续暴跌的原因可归结为三点：一是连续上涨后，市场有技术调整要求；二是银行信贷紧缩预期以及对地产的微调；三是大盘股如中国建筑，中国中冶以及再融资等的加速推进。
如今的大盘面临的环境和当时不能说没有相似之处。首先大盘是在屡攻3300点未果后选择向下；其次新股发行高价跑步发行；再次信贷快速、迅猛紧缩，地产业遭遇深度调控。此外，还外加一个“外星人”——股指期货、融资融券的搅局，须知股指期货、融资融券的即将到来将改变市场原有的盈利模式，凭资金就可以任意拉抬股价的时代面临考验，其是一个价值的探测仪，将让市场自动找到自身的价值，而以如今的大盘走势来看，市场显然还在往“山下”探索“我是谁，来自哪儿，将向何处去的”的答案吧！
而在这个过程中，不仅是利空释放的过程，比如预期中的加息靴子落地等，也是价值回归的过程。只有风险释放后，才有助于大盘见底。我认为，市场的底部也是市场和政策共振后才会探明，这样的信号似乎目前都还没有发出，而直接的表现，势必要大盘出现一根放量大阳线或许才是底部探明的信号吧。
在市场风险没有释放完毕之前，需要做的就是等待和观望，等市场趋势走好后，再从容进场也不迟。昨日，不少在3000点附近抄底的投资者，估计还没有来得及兴奋就又挨了一刀。兵法有云，“战不过攻守”。在不利的环境下，宜取守势，坚壁清野，对应到股市上就宜轻仓、减少操作。
百万资金操作：无操作计划。
股票池操作：无操作计划。
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