张道达投资手记（20100130）：老法师看盘 2月只可“偷菜”(1月30日)
Posted on Feb 01, 2010 under 投资手记 |
张道达投资手记（20100130）：老法师看盘 2月只可“偷菜”(1月30日)
1月的A股，下跌8.78%。大家更关心的还是市场风险是否释放完毕？大盘能否柳暗花明呢？市场水深火热，风高浪急。何去何从，还是让我们来听听道达的精彩观点吧！
紧缩超预期 大盘转向
记者：今年未出现跨年度行情，为何会出现这样的结局？
道达：从A股历史走势看，上半年一般都有行情，甚至从11或12月就开始走出跨年度行情。而如今大盘跌跌不休，个中原因，我认为是以下几方面因素综合作用的结果。
首当其冲的原因当属信贷的超预期紧缩。此前大伙都预计年初的信贷会惯性井喷，而管理层这回可动了真格的要刹住放贷风。迅速启动央票，存款准备金率等手段，大量回收流动性，并再三强调均衡放贷等。仅此一举，对于A股来说，就是一招釜底抽薪的杀招。须知A股历史上年初行情，主要就是因年初信贷井喷导致。
其次，就是新股海量高价发行，其危害之烈达到了本周中国西电上市首日就破发的程度。还有银行股相继推出再融资“地雷”让人防不胜防。盘焉有不跌的理？再次，地产进入新年即遭遇深度调控，其对地产上下游相关行业的负面影响由此可见。最后，周边市场连遭大跌，也对A股造成负面影响。
大盘继续探底 多看少动
记者：但是经济呈V型复苏，都无法抵挡上述压力吗？
道达：说到经济复苏，你还记得去年的时候我说过的一句话吗？“当经济走好的时候，往往是市场阶段性见顶的时候”。如今看来，似乎又被大盘应验。市场永远都是炒作预期，经济复苏的预期在去年开始炒作，而如今炒作的又是对未来经济的预期了。如今大盘的下跌，除了对上述因素以及大家还不知道的利空的的预期外，也包含对经济基本面未来的预期吧。
记者：那么2月大盘将如何演绎呢？
道达：日线上，有牛熊分水岭的半年线已连续3日被跌破，且跌破比例达到3%，趋势已确认向下；而从周线上看，5周、10周、20周、30周均线也形成空头排列；再从月线来看，5月线已经被击破，10月线也岌岌可危。从去年的行情来看，10月线未被击破过，可以关注其得失，如果被有效击破，调整的级别可能还会升级；如果10月线能够守住，则才能说调整有止跌迹象。而大盘要完全止跌企稳定，在A股政策市背景下，仍然还要看政策的变化。
记者：近期的连续缩量该如何理解，该如何操作呢？
道达：连续缩量，大盘存在反弹的可能。但是这并不代表市场跌透；没有增量资金的介入，仅市场存量资金制造的反弹，只会导致更多的场内资金逢高出局，场内资金越玩越少，加上久盘必跌的规律，市场只会越走越弱。因此，当前的反弹，对于重仓者是减仓的机会，即使参与也宜认清反弹性质，轻仓参与。稳健者还是多看少动。
即使在参与的时候，也应该像在开心农场“偷菜”一样，动作要敏捷，做点“偷菜”行情；不然就要遭狗咬了。在股市里，目前也就是等“老虎”打盹时，去整一口。而且在选股上也应多做功课，从价值投资和趋势投资的理念入手选股。
百万资金操作：无操作计划。
股票池操作：无操作计划。
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