张道达投资手记（20100331）：老法师看盘 打折的期指效应(3月31日)
Posted on Mar 31, 2010 under 投资手记 |
张道达投资手记（20100331）：老法师看盘 打折的期指效应(3月31日)
窄幅震荡，略有偏强，指标股重归平静，题材股似乎成打不死的“不死鸟”，小盘股再度焕发青春。这是继周一大涨后，周二沪深股市的写照。
今日，传说中的融资融券交易首单或将出炉，而距离期指开闸的步伐也越来越近了。按理说，这将提升大盘股的价值，理应来个凌厉的攻势。而且从历史上看，各大市场推出期指之前多数出现大涨的走势。
事实上，近期市场反应相当平静，虽然市场重心上移，但上涨很温柔。我不禁想到一个值得探讨的话题。大家都知道市场中的一个现象，总是少数人赚钱，多数人亏钱。或者说，少数人是对的，多数人是错误的。比如大家都预期期指将出，市场将上涨，而提前吃一肚子的“货”，等待拉升。但是按照上述分析，这种美好预期并不是轻而易举可以实现，更大的可能是出现低于预期的走势。
实际上，虽然距离期指开闸时间越来越近，但A股对于期指早就有预期，已没有多少惊喜存在了，这就可以解释目前市场不愠不火的走势。此外，指标股难以组织像样的攻势，可能和今年不太宽裕的资金面有关吧，毕竟要推动“大象”们起舞是需要实打实的资金啊。对于游资来说，与其费力参与本来就被部分反应的利好，还不如去弄弄小盘股，拉起来也轻松。
因此，虽然期指对指标股属于中性偏好的消息，但市场早有预期，利好效应也应打个折扣，比如说原来以为可能涨300点，现降低点预期，涨150点左右，就可能考虑收工了。
对于大盘股，如果说还有进攻的能量，仍然可以留意一下次新大盘股的表现，周一领涨的重庆水务和中国中冶如果能继续拓展上升空间，也就意味着大盘股有真正激活的可能。
百万资金操作：无操作计划。
股票池操作：无操作计划。
March 31st, 2010 at 11:13 am
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